A ceasefire is in force in the Middle East, thanks again to President Donald Trump, though hits continued selectively from both sides in its immediate aftermath on Tuesday. Indications were that the truce would hold for a while as both Israel and Iran have “suffered” enough out of the 12-day war and that the leaderships on both sides are now a chastened lot. Iranian missile strikes on a US base in Qatar on Monday night could have added a new and lethal dimension to the war. With advance warning to Qatar from Tehran, the US could save precious lives at the base. The massive destruction and deaths caused by rival sides exemplified the lethality of modern warfare mainly through missile strikes from long distances. Israel managed to eliminate several top military figures and a top nuclear scientist of Iran and stopped short of targeting supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It also hit the strategically significant Evin prison in Tehran. Iran decimated Israel’s key defence installations; and in a parting kick, its missiles pounded Israel six times in a matter of one hour, causing massive destruction before the ceasefire took hold. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi maintains that it would halt the war if Israel stopped its aggression. Trump has cried a halt to further bombings by Israel. All these should bode well for a slow but steady restoration of peace in the Middle East region.
Since the US stepped in with its huge military might to pound Iran’s three prominent nuclear installations, the Israelis claim these joint offensives have achieved their objective of thwarting the “dual existential threat” of Tehran’s nuclear programme and ballistic missiles. Iran having taken a heavy hit especially after the direct US involvement in the war, Khamenei feared his days were numbered. He manages to have a reprieve, but might not find it easy regaining his long-held, unassailable stature in the Iranian governance structure. Continuation of the war for a longer period could have resulted in serious consequences for all. Iranians have approached Russian president Vladimir Putin and won his support against the US-Israeli aggression. America’s stated position has been that Iran should come back to the negotiation table to curtail its nuclear activities. There’s no clear word yet from Tehran on this principal demand. Meanwhile, the disappearance of some 400kg of uranium that’s enough to make 10 N-bombs from Iran’s stock piles, raises a fresh question mark.
Curiously, a gainer from this war might be Pakistan, which has cozied up to the US and apparently offered some assistance to Trump to execute his Middle-East agenda. There’s more to Pakistan military chief Asif Munir’s infamous lunch with Trump at the White House than what meets the eye. Like it or not, such alliances would continue as long as Pakistan remains ever-ready to do the US’s bidding unlike a cautious India that “mostly” charts its own course – the last month’s ceasefire notwithstanding. Both strategies have their pros and cons. .
