Year 2026 would shape the future course of major political establishments through assembly polls in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. The Election Commission is likely to announce the schedule soon for the polls that are expected in April. Political establishments have begun the spadework for the campaigns, with the Congress party naming its observers for the poll-bound states. Notably, other than for Assam, these states are generally out of the BJP’s sphere of influence while it shares power with a dominant regional party in the Union Territory. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are ruled by regional entities — the Trinamool Congress, DMK, and the Communists respectively. Assam is run by the BJP with an influential chief minister for the past five years. The Congress has hopes of returning to power in Kerala in the coming polls, and the party is also bound to put up a strong fight in Assam, while it is hopelessly placed in TN, Bengal and Puducherry.
Another electoral fight is unfolding in Mumbai, Maharashtra, where the BJP and the three Shiv Sena groups are strong. The polls to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation on January 15 are keenly watched as the BJP and its allies are aiming to take direct control of the civic body that these parties are running by proxy through an administrator appointed by the BJP-led state government. A resurgence of the Congress in the western metropolis is unlikely while the reunion between two Thackeray brothers for the electoral fight poses a significant challenge to the BJP. The results of the polls in the nation’s wealthiest civic body will be out on January 16. The campaign scene is already vitiated with chief minister Devendra Fadnavis “reserving” the Mayor post for a Marathi Hindu, after a section within the local BJP sought the post for a “Hindi-speaking” member.
In West Bengal, the BJP that failed to seize power from the TMC in the last assembly polls despite a huge hype has begun adopting questionable strategies to neutralize the influence of chief minister Mamata Banerjee on the electoral landscape. The raid on the premises of the I-PAC election consultancy firm engaged by TMC and the seizure of confidential documents of the state’s ruling party by the Enforcement Directorate have raised a row on Thursday. Banerjee alleges that her party’s poll strategy documents were targeted by the central sleuths in the name of a raid in relation to a coal scam case. Prima facie, the West Bengal chief minister is safely positioned in the state’s political landscape. So too with Tamil Nadu, where MK Stalin might reassert his party’s dominance, as the opposition AIADMK is yet to demonstrate a matching might. In Kerala, where the CPI-M led Left Democratic Front held power for the past 10 years through two terms, an anti-incumbency mood is evident. The eruption of several scandals like temple gold thefts and other acts of corruption has sullied the LDF’s image. The Congress-led United Democratic Front is aiming to grab power in the state. The BJP is on the sidelines in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
