AS the results stream in today, attention will largely be concentrated on two states –West Bengal and Kerala – while there will be renewed interest in Tamil Nadu, where the fight was also tight. Assam will also gain significant attention regarding whether the ruling BJP can retain or improve its clout. The scenarios in West Bengal and Kerala are intertwined because these were the Leftist bastions alongside Tripura. Overall, the strengths of the Congress and BJP will be up for a review.
The CPIM-led Left Democratic Front, which ruled Kerala for five years, is on the defensive. Exit polls, not necessarily dependable, showed the Congress-led United Democratic Front positioned to seize power there. An anti-incumbency wave was palpable in Kerala this time, unlike in 2021 when Pinarayi Vijayan as chief minister led the Left to a consecutive second term in power. While his first term was satisfactory in several respects, public disenchantment with the chief minister and his governance styles drew harsh criticism in the public domain. Whether this translates into a negative electoral verdict is keenly watched. The 80-year-old chief minister is not in good health as is also evident from his weak disposition in public events. Added to this was the perceived incompetence of a set of ministers the Left had hand-picked for the ministerial posts. Several corruption scandals erupted one after another in the last 10 years, in all of which the chief minister’s involvement was also suspected. Vijayan’s silence and inability to scotch such charges added to his loss of face and the trust that people reposed in him. While the LDF government led by him was liberal in launching and executing several welfare schemes, there was less activity on the developmental front other than in the roads sector.
In West Bengal, the Communists have been neutralized and somewhat decimated by a crafty Mamata Banerjee since she assumed office as Chief Minister 15 years ago. Poll predictions suggest she might be outwitted at the hustings by the BJP, which had repeatedly proved its strong support in the last two parliament elections. Banerjee is accused of stalling the state’s economic progress, even in the post-Left Front era, due to her constant confrontations with the central government. The BJP’s promise of a double-engine government for Bengal might have more takers this time. In Assam, poll predictions were that the BJP would retain power there. The DMK-government of MK Stalin is on the defensive in Tamil Nadu while the alliance government, also involving the BJP, in Puducherry might survive the electoral test, according to predictions so far. If the Congress wins Kerala, this would mean a reassertion of the tricolour party that already has Karnataka and Telangana in its kitty. The BJP is testing the waters in Tamil Nadu with a new push. In Kerala, where the minorities hold nearly half of the votes, winning even a seat or two would be a gain for the saffron side.
