By Kalyani Shankar
Most exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party but that hasn’t stopped the opposition from going ahead with their plans of forming a non-BJP coalition to stake claim for power. Opposition leaders, including West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, have pooh-poohed the exit poll predictions claiming that they were wrong. Congress leaders in private have rubbished them pointing out that the pollsters have gone wrong in 2004 and 2014. It is this hope which is keeping the unity move go forward.
The Opposition parties are preparing for a 1996 (United Front) or 2004 (UPA) post-poll scenario expecting a hung Parliament.
The Opposition unity movement has gained in the past week and is continuing to gather momentum even after the exit polls.
Can the anti-BJP front become a reality? Most major opposition parties are coming together as they don’t want to be caught napping if the BJP fails to get a majority. Former Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has convened a meeting of 21 opposition parties on May 23, the day the results are to be announced. Sonia, who has taken a back seat since she handed over the baton to her son Rahul Gandhi last March, has come to the forefront again because the Congress feels that senior Opposition leaders like Deve Gowda, Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Yadav and others will have no hesitation to work under her. Sonia herself during the campaign reminded about the 2004 surprise victory for the UPA in spite of the India Shining campaign of the BJP.
The main anchor for the unity move is the Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababau Naidu. Fearing a total rout in his state, Naidu has been busy looking for a national role. He has been visiting Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Yadav, Sharad Pawar, Mayawati and others and holding intensive talks with them about staking claim with the president, in case the BJP did not get the majority. Insiders say that they want to try the Karnataka model where the Congress prevented the BJP from forming the government by supporting the junior party JD(S) though the BJP had emerged as a single largest party. It is this ‘Keep BJP out’ move, which is binding the opposition parties. But for all these, the results have to show a hung Parliament with the BJP getting less than 200 seats. Only then there is a chance for the Opposition.
Let us assume for a moment that there is a possibility like the 1996 or 2004 situation. In 1996, Congress supported the United Front government. The constituents chose Deve Gowda as prime minister though he was the fourth choice after V.P. Singh, Jyoti Basu and G.K. Moopanar. Even at that time it was not easy for the ragtag coalition to decide as there were many aspirants like Mulayam Singh and Lalu Prasad Yadav. In 2004, the UPA won the race.
Naidu wants to cobble together a coalition of regional parties and take the help of the Congress to form government at the Centre. Though the Congress may be the single largest Opposition party, Naidu expects the Congress to play the second fiddle and reserve the PM post for a regional leader. There are too many aspirants for the post among the regional satraps. The Congress is the only party other than the BJP likely to cross 100 and the party would demand the top post for Rahul Gandhi. Pre-poll allies like DMK chief M.K. Stalin, JD(S) supremo Deve Gowda, RJD leader Tejaswi Prasad Yadav have supported the claim of Rahul Gandhi. However, Mamata Banerjee too is a front-runner for the post. Moreover, BSP chief Mayawati has not hidden her ambitions for becoming the prime minister for many years. Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao believes that with his 16 seats he can become the prime minister. Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik too has joined the race. Sharad Pawar is the senior-most leader, who has good relations with all players and he had been nursing prime ministerial ambition for decades. All these for a position, which is not vacant yet!
It is not going to be easy for the non- BJP parties to stake claim. They have to cross many hurdles including choosing their prime ministerial face, a Common Minimum Programme, dealing with the inherent contradictions in such a coalition etc. The past record shows that there had been five non-Congress, non-BJP governments so far and none of them lasted a full term. Four of them had the support of the Congress while the BJP supported the fifth one.
After May 23, if the NDA forms the government, the opposition should function as a constructive opposition if they don’t achieve their dream. It was mainly this division in the Opposition ranks, which might have helped Prime Minister Modi to get a second term and the Opposition should learn the lessons. Had they been united before the elections, they might have defeated the BJP. (IPA Service)