SEOUL: Conciliatory gestures by both Koreas have raised hopes that long-stalled nuclear talks are back on the cards, but Seoul and Washington insist Pyongyang must first take concrete measures to disable its atomic programme.
Kim Jong-il made his fourth trip abroad in the past 15 months at the end of August, visiting Russia for the first time in around a decade as the impoverished North seeks economic aid and attempts to boost its regional friendships.
Kim has promised to consider suspending nuclear arms tests and production if international talks on Pyongyang’s atomic programme resume.
There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity over the past few months — including a Geneva meeting between the US and the North scheduled for October 24-25 — which has eased tensions on the divided peninsula and raised hopes that aid-for-disarmament talks will restart.
South Korea has shown signs of loosening its hardline policy toward its destitute neighbour, authorising some aid flows and clearing the way for a flurry of humanitarian and political visits across the border.
Still, the two sides remain as far apart as ever in a row over a joint tourist resort in the North, and Seoul demands Pyongyang apologise for two deadly attacks last year.
The North Korean issue is not a big part of the domestic political scene in the South, although both the ruling party’s chief and frontrunner for the presidential vote next year say Seoul should be more accommodating to Pyongyang.
The ruling Grand National Party (GNP) has suffered a series of defeats at the polls this year, and surveys show there is a growing public discontent over its handling of the economy and slipping living standards.
Welfare, inflationary pressures and the growing wealth gap are shaping up as the big political issues ahead of next year’s parliamentary and presidential votes in Asia’s fourth biggest economy.
This will be the first time in 20 years that the polls have been held in the same year.
Policymaking and progress on economic reforms are often stymied by fractious politics. (UNI)
There is discord in the new GNP leadership over how to take the party forward in the run-up to the elections.
Park Geun-hye, daughter of a former military strongman, remains a strong leading contender for president.
The opposition Democratic Party is gearing up for the votes, with its leader Sohn Hak-kyu positioning himself as the main candidate to challenge Park.
Experts say that the disparate group of liberal opposition parties must form a united front if they are to win a parliamentary majority, and they need to unearth charismatic leader to be a real chance at winning the presidency.
What to watch:
— The mayoral election in Seoul on October 26. An attempt to form a united liberal bloc opposing the ruling conservatives will be tested, and if it fails, may signal that a liberal grouping has little chance of winning next year’s national elections.
— Domestic reaction to the signature of the long-awaited Free Trade Agreement with the United States, approved by US Congress in mid-October. The opposition had been demanding the government reopen negotiations with Washington to revise the pact.
The nuclear envoys from the two Koreas met for a second time in a matter of months in September. They called their talks constructive and useful, but failed to bridge differences over the starting point for a new round of regional nuclear talks.
Seoul and Washington say that the North must prove it is sincere about suspending its nuclear activities before six-party talks resume. For this reason, the Geneva meeting is not a signal that broader talks will soon restart.(UNI)
Still, in October the two sides reached agreement on resuming recovery of the remains of American soldiers killed in the 1950-53 Korean War. Recovery operations, the first since 2005, are expected to start next year.
Pyongyang has said it wants to restart the talks without preconditions. It abandoned six-party talks 2009, and both Seoul and Washington have low expectations that six-party talks will resume any time soon, given Pyongyang’s failure to follow through on a number of deals agreed in the past.
Still, while North Korea talks with its rivals, it is less likely to attack the South again.
Analysts believe war is unlikely. North Korea has not shown it has a working nuclear bomb, and experts say they do not believe the North can miniaturise an atomic weapon to place on a missile.
What to watch:
— Outcome of the Geneva meeting, which will be the second such encounter since July.
— The North allowing the return of international nuclear inspectors. This would be seen as sign of the North’s sincerity.
— For either Seoul or Pyongyang to make a concession which could end a three-year long rift over the joint Mout Kumgang tourist resort in the North.
— The possible resumption of food aid, which may be the next stage in relaxation of international restrictions. The top United Nations humanitarian official visited in October, and said they saw no respite from harvest shortfalls that have left a third of its young children malnourished.
— Third nuclear test. South Korean media reports have said the North was at work on a tunnel at its known nuclear test site, and that progress indicates it is ready to conduct a test.
— Long-range missile test at a new site. The site near the North’s border with China is believed to be more sophisticated than its first facility. It could be used to test the so-called Taepodong-2 missile with an estimated range of 6,700 km .