Tension has been mounting for some time between the civilian government of Pakistan and its powerful military establishment. As in the past, there was talk of an impending military coup. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani had been on the warpath. He told Chinese state-run media that army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha had been acting unconstitutionally and illegally. He sacked defence secretary Naeem Khalid Lodhi. The army reacted sharply and had a high level meeting but Kayani was reluctant to force the pace with Islamic terrorism posing a threat. President Asif Ali Zardari made a short trip to Dubai on personal business but it fuelled speculations about a confrontation. The crisis which began with Osama bin Laden’s killing was aggravated by the recent ‘memogate’ scandal. Apparently, the defence secretary had sent a memo to the US for help against the military. Zardari has been fighting on three fronts-the army, the courts and political rival Nawaz Sharif. The civilian government dared the army to strike. The government is unpopular but the people do not care for a repeat of military rule. Kayani has cold-feet about removing a democratically elected government. Tunisia provides a lesson.
Both Zardari and Gilani are on a sticky wicket for a different reason. All depends on the verdict of the Supreme Court which is looking into ‘memogate’ and other past corruption charges against the President. The Court has also slammed Gilani severely. The US has Afghanistan very much on its mind and will not allow anarchy to be let loose in Pakistan. But China and Saudi Arabia may fish in troubled waters. It is in India’s interest to keep a close watch on developments in Pakistan as home minister P. Chidambaram said the other day. It should keep all options open for stability in the sub-continent