By Srinivasan K. Rangachary
In the incessant flow of punditry over the outcome of the Assembly polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, they seemed to have missed its central message: The diminution in the appeal and role of the central leadership of the two national parties. The truth is that Prem Kumar Dhumal lost the election in Himachal Pradesh for the BJP. And Narendra Modi won it for the party in Gujarat. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi had little role to play in either state.
Also, the Nitin Gadkari-led BJP can claim no credit for the spectacular victory in Gujarat, though, admittedly, it contributed somewhat to the messy conditions in the Himachal BJP. The point is simple. Like all politics, elections too have increasingly acquired a predominantly local character. Which is not such a bad thing after all, given that it would help restore a sense of accountability to politics. You do not deliver, you do not get elected. To put it differently, there are no national leaders around. Regardless of what the jee-huzoor Congressmen might say, no longer is there any guarantee that the mother-and-son duo can help party candidates win the Assembly seats in their own parliamentary constituencies. Happily, we have travelled a long way from the time when the Congress symbol hung on an electric pole could assure its election. The nation has paid a huge price for that sort of idol worship. That sort of charisma diminished the electors while it put on a pedestal the elected, an anathema in a truly democratic set-up. Charismatic leaders drunk on their own sense of importance tended to treat voters as biped cattle. That has ceased. The deepening of the democratic spirit has virtually stopped the deification of politicians including the Nehru-Gandhis, as demi-gods.
Also, it augurs well for the health of our democracy that the two main parties are beginning to become more federal in character. Even in the Congress Party, the high command culture is being forced to adjust to the rise of the local satraps. Had Virbhadra Singh not threatened to quit unless he was made to oversee ticket-distribution, the Congress may well have written off Himachal as well. A couple of aerial forays by the Gandhis were mere diversions; the real groundwork was done by the local leaders. (The failure to adjust with the new local satrap in Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy, is set to cost the Congress dearly in the coming Assembly and parliamentary polls.)
But more than the Congress, it is the BJP which is better placed to harness the energies of its competent and popular state leaders. Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh have performed creditably in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. However, it is Modi who has dominated the national mindspace for nearly a decade now. The secularists have targeted him since the 2002 riots. The resulting fight-back had turned into a national story in which the UPA government, the higher judiciary and even sections of the media played a significant part.
Modi himself might be keen to put that sordid chapter in the history of Gujarat behind him. But trust the secularists to make one last-ditch effort to trip him because they see percentage in keeping that pot boiling. Whether they like it or not, Modi’s transition to the Centre has become a near-certainty after the 20 December verdict. It is no longer a question of whether he would graduate to the Centre, but when. And it is time, too. The main Opposition party needs a strong anchor to end confusion and drift at the top. Thanks to the clashing ambitions and worldviews of various second-rung leaders, the BJP has failed to put its act together despite the abysmal state of the ruling Congress Party.
All that can change should Modi move to New Delhi. The fact that the leaders of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, both competent and forceful in performing their duties, do not have the RSS background ought to be an additional plus for Modi. Yes, he would have to smoothen the rough edges in his personality, try and carry everyone along, take major decisions through consensus, and generally behave as a team player rather than as a lone ranger.
Ultimately, the decision will have to be made by the Nagpur establishment. If the RSS apparatchiks approve, one of their most popular swayamsevaks can lead the BJP in the next parliamentary poll. However, before Modi’s transition to New Delhi, Nitin Gadkari will have to go. He cannot be allowed to stick to the party president’s post when everyone and his uncle knows, that his continuance has become a liability. The RSS leadership will do incalculable harm to the BJP should it still persist in continuing him for another three-year term.
Once Gadkari’s term ends in the next few days, he ought to be replaced by someone like the razor-sharp and great consensus-builder Arun Jaitley. Jaitley and Modi enjoy an excellent personal rapport and share a common belief in a liberal socio-economic philosophy. Unknown to most people, they have worked closely in meeting various challenges Modi has faced from diverse quarters. The sophistication of Jaitley coupled with the organisational skills of Modi can prove a match-winner for the BJP.
Precisely because there is no one individual or family to which its destiny is irrevocably tied, the BJP is blessed to have a number of competent local satraps. Time may have come for the most prominent among them, namely, Modi, to hand over his state to a trusted lieutenant while he himself moves to the Centre. Setting things right in the party in time for the 2014 parliamentary poll will require Modi’s undivided attention.
Whether he chooses to occupy the Delhi throne, a prospect which causes disquiet in some NDA quarters as well, or chooses to become the power behind the throne, would depend on circumstances. But the throne can be the BJP’s provided it plays its cards well and ensures the shift of Modi from Gandhinagar to Delhi in the next six months or so. INAV