From Eric Calvin Ranee
NONGPOH: Going by the present wave in Ri Bhoi District, the result may not be pleasing for the two major parties of the State, namely the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) who have put up candidates in all the five constituencies of the district as neither of the two parties will be able win more than two seats from the district.
According to the latest assessment in the five constituencies namely Umroi, Umsning, Mawhati, Jirang and Nongpoh, the waves seem to be different in all of them due to the delimitation factor besides other recent political upheavals. Incumbency factor might play a crucial role in deciding fortunes of several political heavyweights.
UDP faces challenge in Umroi
Umroi constituency will witness a neck to neck contest between INC candidate and coal baron Ngaitlang Dhar and sitting MLA and independent candidate Stanley Wiss Rymbai who is among the few sitting MLAs to be denied the Congress ticket.
UDP candidate Tirot Sing Sunn might create some hiccup for both Dhar and Rymbai but the people of Umroi are unhappy over the joining of Jaiaw MLA Paul Lyngdoh in the UDP as it was he who toppled the E K Mawlong government during his KSU tenure as president. The party will fare badly if UDP working president and Jaiaw MLA Paul Lyngdoh comes to campaign for Sunn in Umroi as the people will view UDP as UDP of Paul and not any longer as UDP of Mawlong.
Dorphang predicted to have an edge in Mawhati
While in Mawhati constituency, sitting MLA and UDP candidate Donbok Khymdiet is facing stiff competition from former HNLC chairman Julius Dorphang and as per the present trend Khymdeit might have to swallow defeat at the hand of Dorphang. Due to the delimitation, Khymdeit lost 15 villages which were his stronghold as they are now tagged to Nongpoh constituency.
Dorphang has also put in a lot of preparation for this assembly election immediately after joining main stream politics. Moreover Dorphang has the support of the sitting Mawhati MDC Otril Pamshong who is unhappy with the INC as the former Mawhati MLA and INC candidate P W Muktieh denied him ticket from the party for the MDC election as he gave the same to his own kin and kiths.
Lapang’s vote bank evenly distributed in Nongpoh
In Nongpoh constituency, MPCC president and sitting MLA D D Lapang is on a stiff fight with UDP candidate and lady lawyer Rona Khymdeit and this time it might turn otherwise for Lapang if he takes things lightly. Lapang’s vote banks will be split as the electorates might go for independent candidate Badhok Malieh who seems to be doing well.
The two other candidates namely Pascal Lyngkhoi of HSPDP might create soft corner for some electorates due to his active participation in religious affairs while NCP candidate and journo turned politician Charles Syngkli might also cause some damage to Lapang’s vote bank.
Jirang to witness tricky triangular contest
In Jirang constituency, the contest is a triangular one between INC candidate Barnabas Nongbah, NPP candidate and former RBYF leader S Sohtun and NSDP candidate L Mylliemngap who also has the backing of sitting MLA J D Rymbai. Mylliemngap, like Dhar has invested a lot of money prior to the announcement of election and he is also supported by former NCP Jirang Block President Indaris Maring who was instrumental in the creation of several units in Jirang constituency under the then NCP and now NPP and he will be able to garner more votes from other tribal communities residing in the constituency.
Both Nongbah and Mylliemngap are doing better in Pillingkata and adjoining areas while in Patharkhmah areas the results would depend on who manages to win the confidence of the people in the areas.
However, the other part of the constituency, that is the Byrnihat to Khanapara area, is said to witness a stiff contest between Mylliemngap and Sohtun with Nongbah also creating some major ripples here and there.
Among all the candidates in the constituency, only the NPP candidate is a local resident of the area for years and the people of Jirang have time and again expressed their desire of sending a local resident to the floor of the house after they encountered bitter experience for the past 25 years under Rymbai as MLA.
Newest constituency results uncertain
The newest constituency in the district created by the recent delimitation, Umsning is witnessing a triangular contest between UDP candidate and former Umroi MDC F M Mawphniang, INC candidate and sitting Nongpoh MDC Dr. Celestine Lyngdoh and Independent candidate Donlang Sohkhlet. Other candidates in the fray includes former KSU president and independent candidate Donkupar Sumer and another Independent candidate JW Lapang who will also create some hiccups here but might not make much overall impact.
Following the present analysis, UDP has a high chance of winning the Umsning seat while Congress might retain Umroi and Nongpoh and Mawhati might be an upset for both UDP and INC. The Jirang seat may go to NPP if the party campaigns in its weak areas.