By Brij Bhardwaj
Is Kashmir Valley heading for a season of protest, militant activity and unrest is the million dollar question which is being asked in political circles. The situation is bad not in doubt as State summer capital witnessed a strike by suicide squad in which over five Jawans of Central forces were killed and over a dozen were injured including some civilians. The Valley is also observing series. of hartals called by pro-Pak elements for return of the body of Afzal Guru who was hanged and buried in Tihar Jail after he was convicted for attack on the Parliament.
The hanging of Afzal Guru has also for the first time united the two factions of the Hurriyat Conference led by Sayeed Ali Shah Gillani and Molvi Farooq respectively. There is little doubt that hanging of Afzal Guru has hurt the psyche of Kashmiri people. There is a general feeling that he did not get a fair trial or adequate leagal representation and he was denied opportunity to make a final appeal to the Supreme Court. They also feel that his case was picked up out of turn from long list of convicts in the queue for hanging including killers of Rajiv Gandhi and former Punjab Chief Minister Beant Singh.
Agreed that these sentiments are shared by many in the country, one wonders what purpose will be served by wasting another summer which may lead to end of the spurt in tourist season, hopes of industrial investment coming to Kashmir and wasting state resources in endless strikes, closure of educational institutions and state economy suffering. It will also weaken the case for withdrawal of Army Special Powers Act giving special powers to Armed forces in view of improved law and order situation in the State.
It was never in doubt that Militants have suffered major setbacks in recent years having lost number of their senior commanders. With the exception of some incidents in border areas close to line of control, rest of the Valley was peaceful. There were, however, apprehensions that after the hanging of Afzal Guru the militant groups based in Pakistan and some of their supporters in the Valley may launch a major strike to voice their protest.
The latest Srinagar incident, has only proved that inflitration across the line of control continues, though it is not on a very large scale. It is also not in doubt that some militant elements remain active in Valley and can provide local support to elements coming from across the border.
The need of the hour is that there should be support and cooperation between the Center and the State Government to control the situation and prevent it from exploding. In view of the elections which are to be held in Jammu and Kashmir next year. The BJP is expected to make full use of the terrorist strike to revive its fortunes in Jammu as well as is Delhi. It may be mentioned that BJP unit in Jammu suffered a lot due to division in their ranks which led to many members of BJP in State Assembly being expelled from the party. It will also give them an opportunity to attack State Chief will Minister Omar Abdullah for his demand to withdraw operation of Armed Forces Special Powers Act which gives them imuunity against any prosecution.
Any knee jerk reaction to the current incident will only help those who want to end the current phase of peace and tranquility in the State. Surprisingly Pakistan Foreign Minister has spoken that violence will not help in resolving the Kashmir issue. But it is also not in doubt that Pakistan Government is not in control of situation as there are many State actors and non-State actors capable of acting on their own and creating problems in Kashmir.
The situation is expected to become further complicated when the International forces withdraw from Afghanistan. Many terror outfits have declared that next battlefield will be Kashmir Valley. State Chief Minister Omar Abdullah faces a difficult task as he has to fight outfits like Hurriyat who are keen to create fresh trouble and at the same time withstand pressure from his main opponent in the valley that is PDP led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed who would like come back to power.
Agreed terrorists were from Pakistan, the weapons they carried were made in Pakistan, but they could not have carried out their operation without local help.
The aim should be to contain local militancy which is on decline and leave it to army to take care of infiltration across the line of control in Kashmir. This can be achieved by showing adequate understanding of local sentiments. Pakistan can infiltrate men and weapons, but outcome of the battle will depend on local support for it. As such the battle is for minds of local people which India can win if it can avoid making it a political issue in Delhi as well as in State and treat it as a national issue. [IFS]