In a multi-cornered contest and an apparently fragmented polity, the Congress has decisively won in Karnataka. It was not just one factor that made it possible- leader, castes and community came into play. But the key issue was bad governance. The BJP has been a victim of continual infighting. The state’s politics had been in a mess since 2004. The Congress victory may betoken a new pattern. Political contest in India has been regionalized for over two decades and this phenomenon came into prominence in the 1990s. The Congress dominated polity had broken up. In many northern states there had been a fractured verdict in the recent past. That phase is coming to an end. Voters even in Bihar and UP are giving decisive verdicts, eliminating hung assemblies. Anti-incumbency had played a major role in the elections since 2000s. But that is no longer a crucial factor. The incumbency disadvantage does not weigh so much. More and more ruling parties are being voted back to power provided they deliver the goods.
The BJP in Karnataka cannot ascribe its signal defeat to an anti-incumbency wave. The estranged leader, B.S.Yeddyurappa cannot be held solely responsible for the debacle. There has been a distinct swing away from the BJP which had long been in power. The operating force is not a mechanical voter reflex. A division of the Lingayat vote could not have been the basic cause. Corruption cannot be underestimated but should not be overemphasized either. The BJP lost because of obvious failure of governance in Karnataka for the last five years. It cared little for the people. Finally, kudos goes to the energetic campaigning by young Rahul Gandhi leading the Congress onslaught who proved more effective than even Narendra Modi.