By Indranil Banerjea
Within the next few weeks, five states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Mizoram will go to polls. It is by now well established that the Indian electorate is sensible enough to differentiate between the various elections, and changes its voting behaviour as per the nature of the government to be elected, but then at least for a decade, pollsters and political pundits have developed the habit of looking at these elections as semi- finals before the final contest for the Lok Sabha elections.
Recently, when the BJP decided to choose Harsh Vardhan as its chief ministerial candidate for the Delhi assembly, the veteran Lal Krishna Advani made a reference to the fact that New Delhi was one of the first parliamentary seats won by the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, as the BJP was known in those days.
So, though for all practical purposes, the voters in these states are actually going to choose only their state governments, their actions are going to have a larger- than- life political significance on the national landscape. It can be asserted very safely that the political morale of the two poles of the national alliances –the Congress from the UPA and the BJP from the NDA would be affected by the outcome in these five states. Right now, the score stands even, at 2- 2, with the BJP holding Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and the Congress reigning in Rajasthan and Delhi, with Mizoram being numerically in the equation, and politically on a neutral ground. All the elements that add to the drama and suspense in the electoral arena are in full play.
There are the individual ambitions of the state leaders from both the parties, there are the factional divides, there is the anti-incumbency factor for all the governments, and above all, the two protagonists for the 2014 battle — Rahul Gandhi from the Congress and Narendra Modi from the BJP, are flexing their muscles in a warm up exercise for the 2014 battle.
Both of them are not restricting their roles to mere speech making or the on stage show of strengths. But they are also playing a role in the electoral strategising as well as the selection of the candidates, so that they can steer the outcomes towards a favourable conclusion.
In the process, the Congress- versus- BJP contest is getting sharper contours. The electoral choice before the voters in these states is now moving from the amorphous struggle for power, to a more crystallised choice between two competing and contrasting approaches and options. Rahul Gandhi has been now asserting that the BJP’s brand of politics is divisive, whereas Narendra Modi is making a pitch against the dynastic politics of the Congress.
Of course, there is an array of micro factors that influences the overall outcomes in such assembly elections. Often, the smaller parties make a big difference, as in the case of Delhi, the Aam Aadmi party might end up making a difference between the winners and losers. But then, in the final analysis, it is the macro picture that will matter in the public perception, and the pundits would be left debating the ifs and buts associated with the micro factors. In the case of Chhattisgarh, one such element is the role of the left wing extremists.
They have always pronounced that they are against the very concept of democratically elected governments, and also the scheme of things as per the constitution. But then in the last two elections, 2003, and 2008, they have made a major difference.
Ironically, even though they are ideologically opposed to the right wing BJP, their stance has only helped the BJP come to power in the state. In 2003, the BJP won 10 out of the 12 seats in the Bastar region dominated by the left wing extremists, and in 2008, it got 11 out of the 12 seats. In a 90- member assembly, this is all that it requires coming to power. This time, this factor is all the more accentuated as in May this year, the frontline leadership of the state unit, including the state president, Nand Kumar Patel, former union minister, Vidya Charan Shukla, and a senior tribal leader, Mahendra Karma, along with 27 others, were killed in a daring attack in the Bastar region itself. The Maoists have already issued their customary call, asking the people to boycott these elections and sounded dire warnings.
Notwithstanding the billing as the semi- finals these elections have seldom decided the winner in the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. For instance in 2003, the BJP came out triumphant in three states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
Indeed, this triumph was one of the reasons that pushed the BJP leadership to advance the Lok Sabha polls. But in the May 2004 polls that followed, the party tripped, and the Congress led- UPA- I came to power at the centre. According to political observers, it was a shock defeat for the BJP, and it took quite a long time coming to terms with it. Then again, five years later in 2008, the BJP did well to retain Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and marginally lost Rajasthan, but then this did not prevent the Congress from coming back to power at the head of UPA- II in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Now, the BJP governments in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are battling the two term incumbency as they gear up for the November battle. Pre- poll surveys have indicated that they are well poised for a third term, as the ratings of the respective chief ministers, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh, surpass those of the challengers from the Congress. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the incumbent Congress chief minister, Ashok Gehlot, faces a tough challenge from a resurgent former chief minister, Vasundhararaje Scindia, and only the Delhi chief minister, Sheila Dikshit seems to be on a strong wicket. But then perhaps, Modi would be wondering if it would be useful to win these states, and then end up losing the 2014 battle, if the law of averages is to be believed. But then Indian voters are known to stun all — the politicians, the pollsters and the pundits. The next weeks are going to be fun filled for them. INAV