Trinamool facing tough battle in last phase

By Ashis Biswas

KOLKATA: Make no mistake, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) now finds the going more difficult, on the eve of the last crucial round of the Lok Sabha polls in West Bengal, scheduled on May 12.

And its problems can be summed up in a single name: Narendra Modi. Unlike other visiting political leaders, the Gujarat Chief Minister has, except for his first rally in February on the Brigade Parade ground, has not treated his West Bengal counterpart Ms Mamata Banerjee, with kid gloves.

More than anything else, it is the focused, intense ferocity of the Modi political onslaught that has left Ms Banerjee and her party desperately groping for answers, gasping for breath. The outcome has been predictable: caught short on logic and tactics, Ms Banerjee has tried to brazen it out with low level abuse, personal attack and bluster. Suddenly, the anti-TMC campaign, which was lacklustre and scattered during the last Panchayat polls as the ruling party pulverised all opposition, now appears galvanised.

“The opposition parties may end up regretting that Mr. Modi took over the anti-TMC bandwagon so late in the campaign,” says one observer. “Rest assured, large sections within the Congress and the CPI(M) are silently thanking the BJP for bringing the contest to life.”

Those who attended Mr, Modi’s Bengal rallies feel that in some ways, in his delivery of punch lines for instance, the Gujarat Chief Minister tends to follow Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee’s style— employing the brief, tense pause followed by the soft final sentence, delivered sotto voce for effect. There is also the habit of getting the audience involved by asking direct questions from the podium.

But far more important than his style, Mr Modi’s speeches had a major impact in Bengal mainly because he was exceptionally strong on content. His fact-gathering was painstakingly correct, his verbal thrusts being sharp and brief. The contrast with the rambling, almost incoherent monologues from Ms Banerjee, which serve as the TMC’s political counter, could not be sharper.

This writer recalls only one occasion when his briefing from the state leaders was not up to scratch – he referred to “spells of load shedding” in West Bengal, in his February speech.

He was wrong. West Bengal is the lone Indian State which does not suffer a minute’s power cut even in summer, let alone winter because since the 2007 anti-Tata agitation led by the TMC, there has been hardly any industrial investment! It is the one state which actually offers its power to neighbouring states and region including Bangladesh, which continues to report rising demand year after year – a sad, unending economic decline. To his credit, Mr. Modi did not repeat the mistake in subsequent speeches.

Apart from this minor lapse, it is hard to think of any other blemishes or factual errors committed by Mr. Modi. He has sounded like a statesman, needling Ms Banerjee where it hurts the most. He has promised action in Singur where the Tata small car factory was sabotaged by the TMC, if he was elected to power. The once flourishing agricultural hub has remained virtually barren since 2007.

As BJP leader Chandan Mitra has pointed out at a public rally,” Once Singur produced enough rice and veggies to feed even neighbouring areas. It also had some small industries which would have been greatly helped by the small car factory. Thanks to the TMC agitation, today most people at Singur are reduced to queuing up for rice on the dole for Rs 2, meant for BPL people! The locals should throw such rice in the face of TMC leaders, including the Chief Minister when they visit here.”

Well, the Delhi-based Mitra should have checked his facts. Singur is the one place in West Bengal that prominent TMC leaders, Ms Banerjee downwards, avoid like the plague in any campaign. They understand too well they have reduced it to a shambles, as they did with Kespur in Midnapore, during another anti-left “agitation” some years ago.

For the rest, Modi has concentrated on ruthlessly attacking, (exposing would be a better word!) most of the patently untrue claims by the TMC and its supremo: the claim for instance that the TMC leaders were “unaware” of the Saradha chit fund scam, that the state government is “serious” about punishing the scumbags and bringing them to book, that there is perfect peace and order in West Bengal and its economy is booming, etc.

Ridiculing the TMC”s familiar claims about the (largely non-existent!) “achievements” of its rule, Modi has asked instead about the TET scandal, where officially selected teachers have not been given jobs as primary teachers while minor party leaders and their uncles and aunts have been accommodated; he has questioned the TMC”s obvious political opportunism in serving Masjid Imams more than educated Muslim youths without a job, among other things, not to mention its propensity to protect illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

Except for the last one, the issue of Bangladeshi illegal immigration, it would be seen that Modi has voiced only the known grievances of important segments of the state’s population, including sections of Muslim opinion itself. The TMC is strongly banking on its support from the Muslims, not really bothering about opinion or reactions from other communities as it doles out sops and concessions one after another – to the extent of ordering the police to go easy on criminals from certain groups if necessary, an accusation levelled against it by opposition parties.

Now Modi has succeeded in breaking the TMC monopoly on the Muslim votes by carefully raising the Bangladeshi infiltration issue. He has no more than re-enunciated the familiar BJP rhetoric regarding the distinction it maintains between “Hindu refugees” and “Muslim infiltrators” crossing over from Bangladesh, right or wrong. It is also a fact that the TMC, the Congress and the CPI(M) have all protected the latter and treated it as their vote bank at some point of time. Significantly, all three parties have ripped into Modi for spelling out the BJP stand during the pre-poll campaign and expressing, in effect, their support and sympathy towards all Bangladeshi immigrants, regardless of religion.

Referring to the changes between 2011 Assembly polls and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, an analyst points out,” In 2011, the Left front suffered a rout as the Congress, the SUCI, the Maoists, the Muslims, the BJP, the Gorkhas and the civil society were almost totally supportive of the TMC. Today, the Muslims and the civil society are divided, while the Congress, the BJP, the Maoists, the Gorkhas and the SUCI are against it. Add to this mix at least 50 per cent of the disgruntled state government employees who have not got 42 per cent of their pending dearness allowance and the educated jobless people still looking for work, and you begin to appreciate the fight the TMC has on its hands.”

True, but the popularity of Ms Banerjee and her party in many parts of South Bengal should not be underestimated either , say other observers. (IPA Service)