By Kalyani Shankar
The rise and rise of AAP has brought out a new phenomenon that people are willing to give a chance to any viable alternative. It is also the success of the volunteer model where the party was steered by young volunteers. Delhi serves as a classic example of what can come in the coming days if the political parties do not know how to connect with the people and meet the aspirations of the ” aam aadmi”. The vote for AAP was not only a positive vote but also a vote for change and a vote against tried and tested national parties. It proved that the Kejriwal phenomenon has overtaken the Modi phenomenon in the capital just nine months after his landslide victory in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Sharad Pawar was right when he talks of the opposition space. There was a time when it was thought that the country was going towards a two party politics and then perhaps two front led by the UPA and the NDA. The 130-year-old Congress party, which was a force to reckon with in the capital till 2013 Assembly polls, has now ended up as a cropper. The continuing slide of the Grand Old Party since 2014 elections where it ended with an all time low of 44 seats and then in the subsequent Assembly elections in Jharkhand, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and Maharashtra shows the leadership crisis in the party and also the fact that its dynastic politics has not brought any benefit. The Congress has always remained as the ruling party or the main challenger but looking at the way things are going, the Congress is gradually fading away into irrelevance. The Congress has lost the main opposition space. This was visible in Parliament where in the past two sessions, it was the Trinamool Congress or the JD (U), which led the opposition in stalling the business.
While there is no doubt that the Delhi poll results will have far reaching impact on the rest of the country and the Assembly polls scheduled during the next two to three years, the real question is about the space for opposition. Kejriwal’s unprecedented scale of victory in Delhi has given a new ray of hope to the opposition parties that the BJP is beatable. Kejriwal has tried to occupy the opposition space but only in Delhi as his party does not have much role in other states except perhaps in Punjab from where it got four Lok Sabha seats. Even if the AAP can replicate its success, it will take a very long time to establish itself as a national party and the AAP had learnt the lessons in the 2014 polls when it contested over 400 seats and lost deposit in many constituencies.
This brings us to the question what kind of opposition will emerge in the coming days. Do the political parties read the signal from the Delhi poll results? The AAP has captured power once again on the promise of changing the political culture. It has also taught a lesson to secular parties. As AAP did not indulge in minority appeasement, will the other parties fall in line and change themselves? Will they identify with the common man and behave like one? The AAP victory goes beyond class and caste equations and will the political parties note this important fact?
Secondly how will the Congress reinvent itself? It has lost its base. The Dalits and Muslims have shifted to AAP. While the Congress is wiped out in many states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Telengana, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Odisha, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, there is need for introspection and soul searching for the defeat and make course correction as well as connecting with people. The Congress cannot survive unless it builds up the organization, build up local leaders and resolve the leadership crisis it is presently facing. Thirdly, the AAP victory also proves that keeping the opposition votes in tact helps. The regional satraps have put their weight behind the AAP in the Delhi elections. As a BJD leader puts it, the opposition thought that Bihar JD (U) leader Nitish Kumar would be the one to halt the Modi juggernaut but Kejriwal has done it. The question is will the opposition come together on a single point agenda of challenging the BJP and Modi? The first signal could come in the Bihar Assembly elections and next year’s elections to West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and other states.
Fourthly, for a start, the opposition can show a united face in the coming Bihar elections. Bihar is crucial for the BJP and the Janata Parivar. In Bihar, the JD (U) and the RJD, the Congress and the left parties could come together to ensure that the anti Modi votes do not get split. Similar opposition coalition politics can help in other states also which are going to polls. (IPA Service)