WITHOUT MODI WAVE, IT’S ADVANTAGE NITISH-LALU
By Amulya Ganguli
After the completion of the first two phases of the Bihar polls, the indications are that the BJP’s earlier hopes of piping the “secular” combination at the post will not be fulfilled. What is worse for the party is the growing belief that the end result may not even be a photo-finish. Instead, the chances are that the Janata Dal (United)-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress trio will have the last laugh.
Even if Mulayam Singh Yadav’s prediction of a BJP victory is ignored as a case of wish fulfillment by someone who has cozied up to the BJP so that the CBI will be asked to go slow in the disproportionate assets cases against him, there were other signs earlier that the secular group may not have an easy run.
For one, the large attendance at some of Narendra Modi’s rallies suggested that the Modi “wave” hadn’t yet subsided and that his “jungle raj” barb against Lalu Yadav might have had an effect. For another, the emergence of two “third fronts” led by the SP and the Left, respectively, was expected to split the secular votes. For a third, Asaduddin Owaisi was expected to wean away some of the Muslim votes from the Janata Dal (United), the RJD and the Congress
In recent weeks, however, the SP-led front has suffered a jolt with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) walking out because of Mulayam Singh’s proximity to the BJP. Although the rupture will cause no more than a ripple in the election scene because both the SP and NCP are minor players in the state, it is not a good sign for the pro-BJP side.
In any case, the observers believe that the outlook is changing. What is apparently tilting the scales in favour of the Janata Dal (United), the RJD and the Congress is the Dadri lynching of a Muslim householder by a saffron mob who suspected the family of eating beef. The subsequent findings that they were eating mutton cannot but have deepened the sense of outrage at the murderous act of the Hindutva storm-troopers.
Only a few days later, another saffron vigilante group killed a Muslim accused of transporting cattle for smuggling in Nahan in Himachal Pradesh. These tragedies have been followed by a justification for the killings in an article in an RSS journal and by the BJP MP Sakshi Maharaj.
It is more than likely that these assaults on hapless Muslims by rampaging saffron group have cut the ground from under the BJP’s feet by not only consolidating the Muslim votes in the favour of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, but also of the liberal-minded Hindus and others who are scared of renewed communal animosity in case the BJP returns to power.
There is little doubt that whatever appeal Modi’s development plank may still have for the average person, the latter’s first priority is social peace. It also goes without saying that the targeting of innocent Muslims causes great distress to the Hindus as well – something which the BJP is slowly beginning to understand, but not the RSS.
It is not only the strident communal agenda of the RSS which appears to have hurt the BJP in Bihar, but also the observations of the chief of the Nagpur patriarchs, Mohan Bhagwat, about a review of the policy of reservations. If a cue was needed by Lalu Yadav to widen the divide between the backward and forward castes, Bhagwat’s ill-timed – for the BJP – comment provided it.
None of the subsequent attempts by Amit Shah and other BJP leaders to assuage the backwards (the forwards are with the BJP anyway) seems to have worked if only because the RSS sarsanghchalak was only articulating a long-held view of the upper castes that quotas favoured the undeserving.
Arguably, the MY (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank of Lalu Yadav, which makes up 30 per cent of the population – Yadavs 16 per cent, Muslims 14 per cent – is unlikely to have suffered any major division because of the BJP’s efforts to woo the Yadavs via the likes of Pappu Yadav although 19 per cent of this community are said to have voted for the BJP in the parliamentary elections in Bihar.
In the last year and a half, however, much has changed with the Dadri and Nahan killings and Bhagwat’s anti-reservations comments revealing to those who voted for the BJP last year that the party is no longer as focused on economic growth as Modi claims on his foreign tours.
Although the BJP is trying to pretend that it is currently second to none in its appreciation of India’s pluralism – the Muslims can eat anything they want to, Union minister Venkaiah Naidu has said – it is Haryana chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s threat to Muslims that they will have to forsake beef if they want to stay in the country, which is seen as reflecting the real mindset of the saffron brotherhood.
The ordinary people in Bihar, especially those living in the countryside, may not pay much attention to the decision of the Sahitya Akademi award winners to return their medals in protest against the climate of intolerance under the Modi regime. But, there is little doubt that the average Bihari will concur with the prize-winning writers about the grievances against the BJP. (IPA Service)