Paris Accord & After
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The Paris accord will come into force from tomorrow (November 4). Though the threshold of 55 countries was met in September, 55 per cent emission share mark was reached only in early October. In all 74 parties (73 countries and the EU) accounting for a total of 58.82 per cent of global emission had submitted their ratification, which is welcome. However, the big question is whether the threat of global warming and climate change can be checked in the right earnest.
Significantly, India also joined nearly 200 countries this mid-October to seal a legally binding deal at Kigali, Rawanda to reduce climate damaging greenhouse gases, specially air-conditioners and refrigerators. Though the pact comes into effect from 2019, it is expected to help the planet avoid 0.5oC of warming and compliment the Paris agreement.
The deal reflected the principle of common but differential responsibility, where developed countries would have to take enhanced action, keeping in view their historical role of using pollutants over the years. Developing countries, on the other hand, will start their phase down later and have been clubbed into two different groups with India – with nine other countries – starting action from 2024.
There are various surveys/reports which too indicate that it would be extremely difficult to keep warming below the targeted levels. The main aim of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping temperature rise this century well below 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, experts are of the opinion that though governments of powerful western countries are expressing desires of fulfilling the targets, in reality calculations based on their commitments speak otherwise.
India and China are developing at a fast rate and in spite of best efforts and adoption of right strategies, emissions are increasing. And this is happening quite naturally as it was in the West when it was on its path to industrialisation.
It is accepted that India is the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally. Hiding behind the country’s low per capita emission — one-tenth of the US — is no longer a credible position for a global public bad such as greenhouse gases. Though it has promised to reduce emission intensity of GDP i.e. per unit by around 35 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, the aggregate emission will increase, but at a slower rate.
However, efforts are being made and every new investment in the economy, whether in power, buildings or factories is around 25 to 30 per cent energy efficient, thanks to new regulatory norms and to adoption of new technology. Though renewable energy has been given the needed thrust, these projects suffer from risks like inadequate grid connectivity, non-evacuation of their power or dishonouring of power purchase agreements. Obviously these need attention.
Meanwhile, in its first Biennial Update Report (BUR), to UNFCC just after the Paris accord, it highlighted that the country is well on course to fulfil its global commitment by voluntary cutting its carbon emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by about 12 per cent between 2005 and 2010. The report is encouraging as it shows the country is in line to reach its 20-25 per cent reduction target by 2020 and subsequently to 33-35 per cent by 2030.
According to the country’s BUR, the country had emitted 2136.84 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gases in 2010. About 12 per cent of the emissions were, however, offset by carbon sink action of forests and croplands and India is ranked 120 in terms of per capita emissions.
India has promised to create an additional carbon sink — system capable of absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere — of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent through forest and tree cover by 2030. Just over 24 per cent of geographical area is currently under forest and tree cover, and the stated objective is to take it to 33 per cent. However, it would be difficult to rapidly achieve this especially because more forest areas will be cut for developmental or industrial requirements.
Besides, with close to half of India’s forests of very low quality, transforming them would lead to an increase in carbon sink. In last Parliament session, the government got the landmark CAMPA (Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority) Bill passed to make up for every piece of forest destroyed. Thousands of crores of rupees are available for afforestation drives through CAMPA, or Green India Mission.
In spite of the overwhelming response in ratifying the agreement, recent reports suggest that global temperature would rise by two degrees Celsius as early as 2050 above the norm. In a report ‘The Truth About Climate Change’, environmentalists noted the planet is now “heating up much faster”. Already the level of warming reached one degree Celsius after a 0.15 degree Celsius rise in just three years.
The report warned that 1.5 degree Celsius had “almost certainly already been missed” and, even if the pledges to cut emissions are fulfilled, the average temperature is set to reach that level in early 2030 and then 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
The warming was expected due to the increase of greenhouse gases that have and are being emitted due to the slow response of the ocean and atmosphere. Drastic changes have been suggested to the production and use of energy with a switch to electric cars among steps that need to be taken at the earliest.
Meanwhile, another assessment report of the WHO found that climate change is likely to kill 2.5 lakh more people each year by 2030 and most of these diseases would be caused from malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, extreme heat stress and malnutrition. India is having a high burden of these diseases. An earlier study by University of Oxford and published in the international journal, Lancet, projected 130,000 deaths in India from climate change in 2050. The heaviest burden is expected to fall on children, women, elderly and poor, further widening health inequalities between and within populations.
In South Asia, environment versus development concerns are a matter of debate and the balance has to be maintained. On the one hand, pollution levels need to be brought down through strict monitoring and enforcement of regulatory norms and, on the other, proper technology along with efficiency and higher capacity utilisation has to be ensured.
The help of the developed nations both in transferring technology and financial assistance is vital to achieve the objective of checking global warming. But certain initiatives like that of India in making use of solar photovoltaic panels and, to a lesser extent, large wind mills to fight against climate change are welcome. The country plans to install 100 GW of electricity generation capacity through solar energy by 2022, of which 40 GW would be through individual rooftop systems and setting up 60 GW of wind energy. Number of villages are already powered solely through solar or wind energy and such decentralised production and consumption of electricity, is likely to become more prevalent to eventually take electricity to 200 million people still in the dark. —INFA