Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana. Little drops of water may not make a mighty ocean but repeated successes of the combined oppositions in the assembly by-poles in Uttar Pradesh should be a warning to Adityanath Yogi’s BJP government. It may be an alarm signal for the 2019 General Elections. Of course, a single by-poll result is influenced by local factors, the choice of candidate, constituency-specific economic factors, chemistry of allies, alignment and movement of elites, etc. It does not fit in with the big picture. However, Kairana is not without significance. The opposition had ensured that its vote did not splinter. Its stakes were high. A large part of the BJP success was due to performance. It won 71 of 80 seats. The Kairana victory was based on the unity of the two communities – Jats and Muslims. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is a party identified with the Jats. But they fielded a Muslim candidate dismissing communal polarization. The RLD was supported by the SP and the Congress and was unopposed by the BSP. It focused on agrarian distress in the UP. It highlighted the sorry plight of sugarcane growers. A sugarcane farmer committed suicide sometime before the polling. There is however, a school of thought which thinks an uneasy alliance can spell disaster. Sheila Dixit claimed that if the Congress had not joined hands with the SP, the Congress would have won the UP Assembly elections in UP.
The opposition which won the Kairana election should look to the big national picture. The opposition parties should have a shared agenda. Local grievances should be given a macro- dimension. A lesson may be drawn from Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in West Bengal which thumbs its nose at the BJP offensive. Hardliners like Adityanath only harm the BJP national image.