A row is on over the downgrading of the GDP figures of the UPA periods by an entity of the Modi government. The Congress that led the previous government sees a “malicious and fraudulent jugglery of figures” by the present government to reduce the shine of economic growth claimed by its predecessor. Admittedly, it is generally surmised that every claim about GDP growth by every government is part fact and part fiction.
The row relates to a report released by the Central Statistics Office this week, saying the maximum economic growth rate during the UPA periods was recorded in the 2010-11 fiscal, at 8.5 per cent. This trashed the UPA claim of a 10.3 per cent growth during the Manmohan Singh government. The re-assessment has been made in a particular context. In 2015, the Modi government shifted to a new base year for GDP calculations — to 2011-12 from the previously held 2004-05. A review and release of the figures for the years before the new base year started. Notably, the revised growth figures for the last two years of the UPA were higher than the originally released estimates, and the Congress too was happy. This time, the figures between 2005-06 and 2011-12 were released, which drew down the previously projected growth figures.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced in a country in a year. GDP is cited as the “best aggregate measure of economic activity,” a nation has. An argument against it is that it does not gauge individual economic welfare. If total output of a nation rises in conformity with a matching increase in population, it would not mean an improvement in individual welfare or comfort. GDP does not account for differences in income of various demographic groups. In India, this is of special note because we have here a curious scenario of 10 per cent of its people owning 80 per cent of wealth. GDP also does not look at black market economy which is strong in India, or might even outwit the real market economy. An argument against the feel-good-factor vis-à-vis growth in GDP is that it does not take into account or gauge aspects relating to critical indicators like poverty, joblessness, health graph and environmental protection. GDP’s stress is exclusively on quantity, with no regard to quality.
All things considered, let the past be past and let’s look forward to the future with more confidence. Fact remains that the UPA period under Manmohan Singh fared better for the national economy.