Political developments in Uttar Pradesh this past weekend might have come as a dampener for the Congress party which had only weeks ago seen a change in the party’s fortunes – from one of repeated disasters to a rosy scenario of winning three big assembly election and grabbing power in as many states in the electorally important Hindi-belt. Uttar Pradesh with the largest basket of 80 Lok Sabha seats is crucial in electoral terms. In the emerging scenario, the Congress party has little chance of winning more than a handful of seats in this state, thanks to its exclusion in the alliance cobbled by former chief ministers Mayawati of the BSP and Akhilesh Yadav of the SP, after spurning an alliance plea from the Grand Old Party.
This is not to jump to a conclusion that the present scenario will remain so until the time of the Lok Sabha polls. As the nation heads towards the Lok Sabha elections, the coming weeks are crucial. There is rising confidence among the Opposition parties that the BJP and PM Modi can be humbled in the coming hustings. Rafale is only one issue that could turn the tide against the ruling party at the Centre, while the other matters like the disappearance of the Modi Magic of 2014, the failures of the NDA government to rev up the economy, the downslide of the manufacturing sector that is among the biggest job creators, the farm distress, and cash crunch in markets should be matters of worry for the BJP. The days of big talks saving a party or a leader are gone. So, when the LS poll fight gets closer, the BSP and SP could likely draw in the Congress too to fight the BJP to the finish in UP.
Winning UP is most important for either side to grab power in Delhi because of the huge size of its LS basket. Akhilesh Yadav’s grouse now is that despite the support his party extended to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath has not given representation to the one-member SP in the new ministry. Such matters could still be sorted out. Reason why all hope is not lost on a united Opposition fight against the ruling BJP in UP! The Dalits are more against the BJP now due to the Sangh Parivar onslaughts on them; Muslims are always set against the BJP, almost in toto. They would look around for the best bet. Together, this could be advantage BSP-SP in UP.