The dust has not settled on the Line of Control (LoC), but indications are that India might as well be opting for a pause in its offensive against Pakistan at the military level. The path to peace is paved with thorns, though. Pakistan has banned the Hafiz Saeed-led Jamaat-ud-Dawa and arrested some top leaders of the Jaish-e-Mohammed. But knowing the games that Pakistan is capable of playing, not much seriousness need be attached to these. We had been here before, with little effect to such actions from Islamabad. Likely, again, a veiled kind of patronage is being extended to the pro-Kashmiri terror outfits in the guise of stern action.
India is at the doorstep of the Lok Sabha poll and the Narendra Modi government’s life is on oxygen. The IAF strike in Balakot gave him a breather for now, after his image started fading going downhill for a while, but whether this spirit can be sustained in the long run and up until the elections is a big question. For one, there are doubts about the effects of the IAF operation. It would be alright to state as part of political rhetoric that those who want to know about the number of those killed in the bombing should go to Pakistan and find out, as home minister Rajnath Singh has stated, but the Centre would do well to come up with more factual statements. Pakistan is inclined to hide such matters, but India needs to make a try and establish related facts. It is understandable that West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee is vocal about knowing as much, as PM Modi has taken the wind out of the sails of the Opposition by ordering the IAF strike.
China, which unexpectedly adopted a neutral stand on the India-Pakistan stand-off after Balakot, seems keen on playing midwife to usher in peace in the subcontinent. Its guarded approach to the issue is likely prompted also by its own worry over Islamic militancy in the eastern sector close to Pakistan and the other Isthans.
As India has called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff – that it would use nukes if India tried its military hands on the Islamic nation – China remains its only hope now. Balakot, though, showed there’s a limit to such bonhomie. The US help to it is limited as well. Under the circumstances, restoration of peace with India should be a matter of top priority for Pakistan.