The BJP-Shiv Sena chariot, for sure, is stuck in the mud, but it was unclear whether the mud had something to do with “arrogance” of the BJP as was alleged. By drawing a line and seeking to force the BJP to stand on it, the Shiv Sena might or might not have done a service to itself in the long run. It was common knowledge that the relations between the two parties, even as they shared power in Maharashtra for years, were not on an even keel.
The size itself is a matter of contention. The BJP has 105 legislators in a house of 288, while the Sena has a modest 56 seats. In the normal course, haggling for CM’s post, or of its sharing between the two parties for half term each, should not have arisen. This, though, turned out to be the central issue now. The Sena sees a window of opportunity because it felt there could be an alternative in the form of support from the Congress and the NCP of Sharad Pawar, should the Sena break ranks and offers to form a government. For the Congress party, its initial hesitations notwithstanding, backing the Sena to form a government from inside or outside of a new ministry could serve its central purpose of neutralizing the hold of the BJP over a big and money-spinning state like Maharashtra.
For NCP, anything would suit it if there is scope to be a part of the power edifice. The BJP and PM Narendra Modi kept the NCP at a distance because of its tag of corruption. The PM himself once called the NCP the Nationalist Corruption Party. The recent cases that were in the works against NCP leaders Sharad Pawar in the cooperative bank scam and Praful Patel in his real estate-Dawood link would be added concern for the BJP to avoid allying with the Pawar enterprise.
Under the circumstances, the chances of the 56-member Shiv Sena forming a government with support from the Congress and the NCP, which have 44 and 54 seats respectively, seemed real. Finally, the numbers in the assembly mattered. The collective weight of the Sena, the NCP and the Congress in the assembly will be unassailable. If so, what should prevent the governor from giving this proposed alliance a chance first, remained as a valid question. It was this that the Sena was also waiting for, it would seem, so that it could have its own CM in the form of family heir Aaditya Thackeray.