A big question facing India on the Covid front is this: is the worst over, or has it just only started. The Covid-19 virus has its unpredictability. There is nothing to show that the pandemic has been neutralized here, though the good thing so far is that both infections and deaths have reduced.
While the infection toll has risen to over 27,000, there have been 826 deaths so far. This is not a small figure, but there is some comfort here, set against the fact that five countries have reported death tolls of above 20,000. The US infection toll is around 10 lakh, and the death toll there has crossed 50,000, even as the population there is less than one-fourth of India’s. The scare in India is limited, as a result, and the central worry is on the hit that the economy is set to take, both in India and around the world; and how things would shape up overall.
While India’s lockdown period has crossed one month, on April 24, it is likely to continue at least up to May 3. Chances are also that it could continue for more weeks or months, with lesser restrictions but stricter containment strategies. States like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have not been able to tame the scenario. New hotspots are springing up, as is evident also from the way Tamil Nadu and some other states further intensified the shutdown of selective areas.
Shops have been allowed to open nationwide, in safe zones, but malls, markets and cinemas will have to wait. So will the railway passenger services and air travel. It would take months to restore normalcy here even though the death tolls are not mounting exponentially. The RSS which guides the government from behind the scenes has called for an extended lockdown for more weeks. So too some states! This requires a well-thought out strategy by physicians, administrators, political executives and epidemiologists. Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has proposed opening up of less vulnerable areas first and more vulnerable areas later for resuming economic activities.
Governments are running out of cash, as revenue from sales tax and excise revenue from liquor sale have stopped for an entire month. The large majority of Indians subsist on hand-to-mouth existence, despite the tall claims. The Centre is not forthcoming with substantial relief packages. Businesses are already facing the heat, but indications are that the super rich forming this segment will be squeezed more by governments desperate for money to pay salaries to their employees.