The Economic Survey 2020-21 released in Parliament expresses optimism about a V-shaped recovery for the national economy. This is well-understood, given the positives that should emerge in the context of the fast-paced vaccination drive across the world and in India. Covid-19 itself does not seem to be in a mood to linger for long. The pent-up energy of the past one year will get released sooner than later, and a rebound in global economy too will have positive, encouraging impact on Indian economy. Question however is, given India’s laid-back approach to matters, how much of this new energy can this nation make proper use of. Hurdles from the government side themselves are far too many, as was the case in the pre-Covid times too.
The hope as expressed in the economic survey is that India could achieve a GDP growth of 11 per cent in fiscal year 2021-22 that is about to start from April, taking advantage of the expected jump-start after the season of lockdowns and extensive restrictions on public life. The next fiscal, it could get down to normal with a 6.8 per cent growth. If this happens, well and good. It is time that government also makes the right moves to free up the economy from too much of controls and the bane of the licence raj as also corruption at bureaucratic and political levels that have brought down the spirit of enterprise. This is also adversely affecting job creation, with only the services sector showing substantial growth.
The manufacturing sector is down in the dumps and understandably so. The commission raj and not just China, ensured as much. If very little of investments are coming into this sector, it is worth pondering why. The Survey stresses that “more than lack of compliance or regulatory standards, our administrative process is ailing from over-regulation”.
The index of eight core sector industries kept contracting in the past few months, raising question marks over an early recovery for the national economy. The survey notes that the Bangladesh economy is growing fast on the back of a major uptick in exports, based on the competitive advantage it has; something which Indian enterprise failed to achieve. It is high time our complacence is replaced with a new energy to perform.
Significantly, a mention is made of the ills plaguing the banking sector, with a proposal to clean up bank books to ensure the mistakes of the past are not repeated. Question is does this government have the will to perform and produce results.