By Dr D.K. Giri
A West Asia Quad is on the anvil. This Quadrilateral partnership comprising India, USA, UAE and Israel will provide a solid window for India to the Arabic world. In India’s strategic backyard, it will open up enormous opportunity for India’s economy, technology and human resources. At the same time, India should leverage its economy for a bigger opening in the region.
Follow the creation of the Quad in the India-Pacific consisting of India, USA, Japan and Australia, and the reactions it incurred from countries, mainly China and its new ally Russia, the grouping of India and USA, Israel and UAE are likely to draw similar attention. India teaming up with America in any part of this world will raise eyebrows of China, and in the Arab world, it would rattle Pakistan if it is isn’t the Arab region. Hence, New Delhi will have to tread cautiously, unless, miraculously relations with both Beijing and Islamabad normalise.
The coming together of four countries is a promising development, which some observers are leading the epithet, West Asia Quad. This group follows the Abraham Accord signed in September 2020 between Israel and Arab states — UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. The Abraham Accord was a historic development following two such accords in the past; Israel and Egypt in 1979, and Jordan and Israel in 1994.
According to this accord, Israel and other signatory countries could open embassies in each other’s countries, and trade and investment could begin. While Israel is ushered into the Arab world through diplomatic and economic ties, Muslims, among other things, could go and pray in the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the third highest holy site of the Islamic world.
Abraham Accord and West Asia Quad were done against the backdrop of competitive positioning of the powerful countries. One is to curb the ambitions moves by Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkish leadership of the Islamic World. Second factor is Iran, that is developing nuclear capabilities. Iran has been in cold war against Saudi Arabia for long? The fight is Islamic inter-denominational conflict between Sunni (Saudi Arabia) and Shia (Iran).
From New Delhi’s point of view, this new grouping lands new access to advance its geo-economics interests. India has been dealing with three poles of power in the region, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran. West Asia Quad provides another pole. The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries have been India’s largest trading partner. India has been a big market with 1.3 billion consumers as well as investors.
Among the GCC countries, UAE champions India’s interests in the Middle East. India receives considerable remittances from expatriates in the Middle East, mainly UAE. Of late, UAE has taken the initiative in inviting India as the observer-member of Organisation for Islamic cooperation (OIC) much to the chagrin of Pakistan. It has also snubbed Pakistan for raking up Kashmir in each meeting of the OIC.
Israel has been close to India. Saudi Arabia is somewhat friendly. Iran and India have maintained proximately in mutual interest, but USA’s sanctions, and exit from the nuclear treaty has put strain on that relationship. China seducing Iran away is another bottleneck in maintaining the relations. UAE has also stood for India in a few forums including the OIC. Hence, New Delhi should ramp up defence and security ties with UAE which could be India’s dependable ally in the Middle East.
The United States has formidable presence in the Middle East because of its proximity with Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia and other countries. But Russia is gaining an impressive foothold with its selective alliances with countries like Syria. Beijing is eyeing the oil-rich region to acquire strategic accesses through Iran and others. It has made contacts with Israel too. That tie-up may be tricky in view of the Israel-USA umbilical cord.
At any rate, India as a part of West Asia Quad will reap big benefit. The group is said to be focussed on political, economic, development cooperation and maritime security. It will generate and implement infrastructure projects only. It has no military angle. But observers and economic experts would say that even when one economic cooperation shared security concerns are bound to come up. There is bound to be intelligence-sharing, and coordination on the security front as economic interactions and security are closely linked, especially in West Asia.
New Delhi, however, seems be sanguine about the West Asia Quad. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said recently that “the Quad has moved effectively and well in the last year. It is loose, innovative and embraces new ways of working for all the four members. It is not aspirational, it is real.” The new group takes a realistic view and finds practical solutions on issues like student movements, vaccines, start-ups etc.
The other economic strategy followed by West Asia Quad is to avoid risking large exposure to any country. In the wake of the pandemic, such exposure has cost heavily to the countries. The reference country is China, which is the hub for aviation, pharma, and medical equipment. These got disrupted due to COVID-19. In the light of the COVID-19 experience, West Asia Quad will explore shorter and multiple supply chains and plural options. It will also focus on hedging and de-risking the imports.
In the future, technology will be a key determinant in economy, politics and diplomacy. New technologies, green-technology and start-ups will be the top priorities. In order to operate those, sound and quality human resource will be needed. India with her depth in skill-building, education and technical know-how can be a more effective power.
Finally, the West Asia Quad is a result of many countries de-coupling Israel and Palestine. New Delhi has done so. Two Arab countries had done it, now others are following suit. Be that it as it may, Israel boycott must end, and the Palestinians should be able to live in peace and security. The West Asia Quad could serve as a balancer between the two countries in perpetual conflict.
It is certainly a feather in the cap of India to have friends and partners in the Middle-East. Pakistan could not play the Islamic card in the region as India has as many Muslims here. The domestic policy should reflect our foreign policy and vice versa. That balance is to be made by India. That is the challenge of diplomacy in the Arab world.—INFA
(The writer is Prof. International politics, JIMMC)