The five-state assembly elections are, if anything, raising the confidence of the Opposition parties – to get set and face the BJP in the general elections slated for the year 2024. A lot can happen between now and the coming two years. Yet, the writing is on the wall. This round of assembly polls, principally in the northern sector, is bound to have embarrassment in store for the BJP. As it stands today, the party is not sure of a win in any of the five states. Results, though, are unpredictable and could swing either way. But, the palpable anxiety on the faces of the all-too-powerful BJP leaders on the campaign front is proof that all is not going well for the party.
Punjab is seeing the main fight between the Congress and the AAP; Uttarakhand has the Congress and the BJP face-to face; Uttar Pradesh has the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in a close fight; the results of UP being the keenly watched one. If the BJP loses UP, the party would start the walk for the 2024 general elections with a lost face. If it wins UP, the rest is less of a worry. Manipur and Goa have regional parties at play and how things shape up there is unpredictable. It is this sense of uncertainty on the face of the BJP that is raising the hopes for the Opposition to start the preparations in advance for the upcoming 2024 fight in earnest. Telangana’s chief minister Chandrashekar Rao met his Maharashtra counterpart Uddhav Thackeray to take his campaign against the BJP forward but has won conditional support – that any opposition alliance should have the Congress included in it. This is the stand being taken by Tamil Nadu’s MK Stalin as well.
On the Congress turf, this round of assembly poll campaign was jointly led by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra, she having come more upfront compared to the previous round of assembly polls in West Bengal, Assam and elsewhere. The two are, by now, like bread and cheese on the campaign front. The Congress clout will be high if it can retain Punjab and grab Uttarakhand. Goa and Manipur can be sidekicks. What would follow are elections to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat in the next round. In all the three states, the Congress still has the firepower. It lost MP by a whisker in terms of a clear majority, won Rajasthan and narrowly lost Gujarat in the last polls. The next time around, a loss for the BJP could entirely be the Congress party’s gain.
