Scenario-1
NPP+BJP+UDP coalition remains unchanged
Scenario-2
NPP+ BJP forge new coalition
Scenario-3
TMC+UDP+Congress form post-poll alliance
Scenario-4
NPP+ UDP share power
SHILLONG, Dec 22: With the season of “transfer of players”, to use a football parlance, being virtually over, the alignment of political forces at the next hustings is more or less clear. What is still hazy is the outcome, even though the general perception is that no single party is likely to secure absolute majority.
Indeed, Meghalaya’s familiar saga of coalition politics and defections is unlikely to change come March 2023.
First thing first. Let us see which party has gained the most in the “transfer market”.
There can be no doubt that the Trinamool Congress as rank outsiders have numerically gained the maximum. That from zero, it has nine MLAs today is a big frog leap for any debutant political party.
The next big beneficiary has to be the National People’s Party which fancies the idea of romping home without the support of its current coalition partners. It has picked up two sitting MLAs, while more are likely to join in the coming days. It also has lost a couple of legislators. The United Democratic Party, which is a balancing factor in the fragmented state politics, has earned only fringe benefits of two at the expense of the Congress and the Hill State People’s Democratic Party, both battered and bruised by the tumble of state political dynamics.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which toiled hard to gain foot-hold beyond its current toe-hold, has bagged three sitting MLAs raising hopes of a bigger presence in the next House. The fringe parties like People’s Democratic Front, Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement, Nationalist Congress Party, besides the Independent MLAs, are likely to remain as “floaters” coming handy for the political sharks to exploit during ministry formation.
Going by media reports, so far only NPP and TMC have made claims about securing the magical 31 seats. NPP supremo Conrad Sangma has claimed that he would be forming government on its own. His bête noire Mukul Sangma has also made similar claims.
Political observers dismiss such chest thumping as mere political rhetoric. However, the stark fact remains that these are the only parties posturing to capture power all by themselves.
Although polls are good two months away — two months is a long time in politics — and a lot can change in the intervening period, it will be interesting to piece together some of the emerging trends and the moves and counter-moves on the chess board by the involved parties which could have major bearing on the results.
NPP’s meteoric rise
It is NPP’s singular credit that from a ragtag “Garo party” today it has soared to a level to emerge as the most powerful party. From a mere 2 seats in 2013 (both from Garo Hills), the 
party has perceptibly spread its sway over the Khasi and Jaintia Hills region. This may be attributed to the lure of power, but it is a meteoric rise all the same. The dramatic decline of Congress too has contributed to NPP’s rise. It is quite apparent that the NPP is buoyed by its acceptability as the only all-tribal party having presence in the entire state. Obviously, NPP feels confident of romping home all by itself.
Whether the NPP aspirations will come true or not will much depend on how it can overcome anti-incumbency, particularly in the Garo Hills region where it is under strident attack from TMC, BJP and to a lesser extent from the Congress. The NPP response to charges of corruption in high places, lack of development of infrastructure and misuse of central schemes will have to be equally strong in order not slip up in its own backyard.
NPP-UDP discomfort
The mutual trust between two main props of the ruling coalition — NPP and UDP— seems to be going through a testing time. In a free for all fight, UDP is clearly feeling the heat of NPP’s political aggression. UDP leaders, who are facing NPP candidates in many constituencies, have made frontal charges against NPP’s usurping of popular vote catching government schemes. Cabinet Minister Kyrmen Shylla and former minister Paul Lyngdoh, who is trying to make a comeback, are openly questioning NPP’s clever use of schemes solely for advancing its own prospect at the expense of coalition partners. The controversial FOCUS and FOCUS+ scheme is a case in point. NPP has maintained a studied silence so far. How they handle the grouse may have a big-time impact on the government formation in March.
TMC’s best case scenario
Like all new entrants, TMC has an uphill task ahead. Remember Congress used to be dismissed as “Dkhar party”? Or for that matter BJP is still considered as “anti-Christian” Hindu party? In these hills, such untouchability takes a little long to disappear. In TMC’s case, it is described as a “Bengal party”. The party top guns have been leaving no stone unturned to remove such a tagline. TMC’s strength is that it has an able steward in Mukul Sangma and the party has been putting all its might in Garo Hills in order to wrest the initiative from NPP in the area. In addition, the party has all the wherewithal that it takes. For past few months, Garo Hills, which has 24 seats, is awash with TMC propaganda — both visibly and in mobilising public opinion. The party stalwarts claim that it is going to grab 18 seats. NPP, on the other hand, gives no more than half a dozen seats to TMC. Observers, however, believe that the truth may lie somewhere in the middle.
Relatively, TMC has not gained commensurate ground in Khasi-Jaintia Hills. In some of the key constituencies, the party is yet to identify candidates. It has formidable prospects in no more than a few seats. Whatever number it can eventually gather in this region is unlikely to add up to the required figure. Therefore, TMC will have to forge post-poll alliance. And their best bet is UDP which is going to be the deciding factor in a hung Assembly.
UDP’s hard choice
As MDA’s major partner, UDP too has anti-incumbency to handle. The shortcomings of the coalition, especially when it comes to Home, Education, Mineral Resources etc., may not be easy to defend. The UDP’s major political liability maybe its inability to keep other coalition partners in check. The UDP detractors say that the party failed to take a stand when various allegations of corruption which surfaced in the past few years. The party was seen as a silent accomplice. To be fair to UDP, its president Metbah Lyngdoh remained circumscribed by the fact that he was left to serve as the Speaker and not a minister. The party should have positioned him as the Deputy CM to call the shots. On a hind sight, UDP was never in control of the affairs of the government, given the fact that it has newcomers and inexperienced representation in the cabinet.
Although UDP leaders are now openly questioning NPP’s machinations, there is no certainty that it might lead to parting of ways with Conrad Sangma. Isn’t power a cementing factor? Much would however depend on who returns to power and who loses out. In a personality driven politics of Meghalaya, a big clincher is going to be what’s on offer! Therefore, it would be UDP’s call whether it is going to old wine in new bottle or new wine in new bottle.
Upswing for BJP
For every political party, the name of the game is Power. As the national champion, BJP is no exception. There are signs that the saffron party is making strides in an unlikely Christian-predominant state like Meghalaya. From being a fringe element, BJP is doing all that’s possible to have greater say in governing the state. In that quest, the party has not only enlisted support of three sitting MLAs, but also is hoping to win a few seats more in Garo Hills, where its belligerent vice president and sitting MDC Bernard Marak is making all the aggressive noise. The high-voltage drama over Marak’s arrest early this year and subsequent release on bail, has fouled up NPP’s smooth run up to the polls. Significantly, the former militant has a sizeable youth support in South Tura constituency posing a serious challenge to Conrad Sangma. According to grapevines, NPP may have to consider fielding Conrad from a safer seat like Selsella. The party has denied such speculations.
Political observers believe that BJP under the energetic and straight-talking Bernard, backed by BJP’s ground support, may help the party treble its strength in the new House. It is noticeable that despite its proximity to NPP, none of the BJP leaders has disowned Bernard when serious charges were brought against him by the NPP-led coalition. In fact, BJP insiders claim that Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma is going to campaign for Bernard in South Tura. Given the bond Conrad and Himanta enjoy, such a scene is quite improbable, unless Conrad eventually moves out of South Tura. Only time will tell.
Congress down but entirely not out
The fortune of Congress has had an unbelievable down swing in the past five years. In 2018, despite emerging as the single largest party with 21 MLAs, the Congress could not forge an alliance. It was left to Himanta-Conrad to muscle their way to power at the expense of Congress. The defection of 12 MLAs to TMC last year and subsequently losing three MLAs to NPP and UDP has left the party in shambles. The lone crusader Vincent H Pala, the sitting Lok Sabha member, is doing all he can to revive the party’s prospect. In the most likely scenario, Pala himself may be the best prospect from Sutnga-Saipung in Jaintia Hills, while former Deputy CM Deborah Marak seems to be having an edge in Williamnagar. Besides these two seats, the party hopes to pick a few more. Whatever may be the eventual strength of the party, it seems, if TMC has any dream of forming a non-BJP coalition, Congress will have to throw its limited weight behind.