SHILLONG/TURA, March 1: With just a few hours to go before results for the most keenly contested election in the state is to be announced on Thursday, most political experts as well as the informed laymen are scratching their heads on what they believe could be the most keenly-fought elections in the state ever.
Will it be MDA 2.0 or will there be a new entity in power in the state? The answer probably lies in the outcome of the results in the Garo Hills region. Of the 24 seats in the region, in almost all seats none of the contestants can really be pointed out as being out of the race.
While most political pundits have predicted a hung verdict, exit polls have given the edge to the NPP and placed the TMC second on the list. Whichever of the two parties ends up on top in Garo Hills is likely to dictate the terms post counting of votes.
The BJP, which is sounding confident about walking away with at least 15 seats, is likely to play a major role in government formation in Meghalaya, as indicated by its leaders time and again.
The UDP, the largest regional party in the state, seems confident of winning around 20 seats, but best estimates by election experts put the number at around 10.
A surprise element in this election could be the emergence of the VPP as a regional force. Ground reports suggest that the newly-formed party could win a few seats by staging some upsets in the process.
Political analysts have also suggested that the Congress might spring a surprise comeback in some key constituencies. While Congress leaders have confidently stated that the party would form the next government, the reality is to the contrary. The grand old party, which was facing an existential crisis, is likely to find enough oxygen to keep going in Meghalaya.
While everyone wants a stable government to rule the state, the fact that the mandate will be a fractured one is beyond doubt. Once the process of counting is complete, who forms the next government will depend completely on the willingness or unwillingness of the coterie of leaders to work with or without each other.
Guessing game in Garo Hills
“There is no forgone conclusion in any seat as everyone has put in their efforts at winning the seat. What has complicated matters in most of the constituencies is the presence of at least 4 serious party contenders (TMC, NPP, BJP, Cong and in some places, the UDP). Add some serious firepower from some independent candidates, and you have the Indian version of the ‘Khichdi’. Whew! It’s too close to call,” said one Tura resident, B Ch Sangma.
Taking a close look at some seats shows the dilemma that is being faced by pundits and candidates alike.
Take the case of South Tura – the seat being contested from by the chief minister, Conrad Sangma, expected in more ways than one to be an easy one. However, put BJP’s Bernard Marak into the mix add TMC’s Richard Marak, flavor it with former South Tura MLA, John Leslee Sangma and add the Congress candidate for garnishing and you have the perfect potpourri for a spicy contest. In the end it could just boil down to who cuts who’s vote and by how much. No one is present and clearly a winner until the last vote is counted.
In a similar condition is Rongjeng which saw 6 candidates vie to represent the people of the constituency.
The NPP fielded sitting MLA, Jim Sangma while the BJP fielded Raphius Sangma, TMC fielded its former MLA, Sengnam Marak, the Congress Jewing G Momin UDP Andreas G Momin and Independent, Walseng Sangma.
As per locals, all those that are in the mix and equally capable of upsetting the applecart and the fight in the end may be about personal relations and micro calculations, as per one of the contestants, Raphius.
“I have done my extreme best in trying to win my seat and I hope I get through. It is not only about campaigns but also about micro assessments of situations. I have, I hope managed that and will come out on top. The rest I leave to God,” he said.
Raphius came third in the last MLA election and hopes to do two better this time.
Walseng Sangma, the Independent is among the top contenders for the seat which is expected to go down to the absolute wire.
The topsy-turvy nature of election always leaves things to chance. While one candidate may appear initially strong, calculations of a cosmic nature turn things around super quick.
“If things go right for the NPP, it could end up winning 14 seats in Garo Hills and if it does not it may end up with less than 5. Similar is the situation with the TMC. Whatever be the case, these two parties are expected to feature amongst the top 3 in almost all constituencies. It is, like everyone here is putting it, a mere question of margins,” felt another resident GM Sangma.
The much awaited ‘exit poll’ put a spanner to people’s understanding of local elections. While some projected the NPP winning almost 27 seats, some others expected only 14. This vast difference in the projected figures has not gone down too well with the people. “How can you have a 13 seat difference in a state with a 59 seat count? They have either goofed up big time or don’t know what they are talking about. Nothing better than to go to ground to develop your reports,” felt another, JM Sangma from Rongjeng. He is rooting for the Independent candidate, Walseng Sangma.
The election could also prove that there is nothing like a dead Congress, only a struggling one. As per ground reports, the Congress bandwagon is far from over. In at least 10 seats that it is contesting, it is serious about its chances in 10. It may end up winning at least 2-3 if luck favours the party.
For the BJP however, it is another story altogether. The party not only believes it can win about 10 seats from Garo Hills but is also confident that it will be the party that will lead the state in the coming days no matter what the outcome. It is looking good in at least 5 seats and has chances in another 3 in Garo Hills.
Chances are that there will be more at play once the ground after counting settles.
“Home Minister Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi have both come to visit Tura to show the intent of the party for the upcoming elections. Is there anything else that is required to show intent and how seriously the state elections are being taken by the BJP higher ups,” asked a BJP party leader who did not wish to be named.