From Our Correspondent
TURA, Aug 1: Saleng Sangma’s landslide victory in the recently concluded MP elections for the Tura seat has set off a wildfire in local politics with many now speculating which way the rabbit hole is going to run.
Sangma’s win broke the hegemony of late PA Sangma and his family on the Tura MP seat for close to five decades and came at a time when the Congress, after former Chief Minister, Mukul Sangma left the party, was at its lowest ebb. The former Gambegre MLA was the lone Congress representative in Garo Hills.
The Congress win also comes at a time when the NPP almost completely swept the Assembly polls, winning 18 out of the 24 seats on offer. The setback to the NPP in a battle that they were expected to win in their sleep has put a lot of questions on the future of the party in the state. This puts the onus of not only winning the Gambegre seat but doing so by a huge margin on the party and being in the ruling disposition in the state, the party is expected to go all out to secure the mandate.
At least four parties, national or regional, are expected to put up candidates for the bypoll when it is announced – which should be soon as more than two months have already passed since the declaration of the MP election results.
Here is a look at where the parties and their candidates are placed as of now:
Indian National Congress
No doubt the favourites despite the odds solely because it is Saleng’s home constituency and has voted for him even while he is in the opposition. There is no reason to believe that the Congress’ choice of candidate would have a major impact unless something drastic takes place.
For the Congress, Saleng’s win is expected to rejuvenate the party and its ranks. The party had been in the doldrums since Mukul’s exit just 1 year prior to the 2023 MLA elections and despite putting up a brave front, it was hardly able to garner votes that generally went to the party. The party stood a distant third in vote share in the 2023 elections. With a credible performance by the party in Garo Hills as well as a creditable show of the party in the Centre, the only direction the party can go is up.
However, resting on the laurels of Saleng’s win could spell doom for the party as it tries to make itself felt across the state once again. To begin with a consensus candidate to replace Saleng will be the first order of the day with many hopefuls currently wanting to be part of the coterie to replace him — names like Jungjang Marak, Billykid A Sangma and even Deborah Marak.
“There is an upswing in the followers of the party after Saleng’s win and this could bode well for the Congress which has always had a very strong presence in the state. Many had given them no chance to win anything in past election but they still managed to get 5 seats in the state. The Congress has now got a fillip and not only the upcoming by-poll but the MDC election as well as the next Assembly election in 2027 will be the real litmus test,” felt a resident of Tura, TM Marak.
National People’s Party
For the NPP, the real tests lie ahead and it needs to work on how it wants to project itself in the coming year. While it sits pretty in the state over the next few years, it needs to thank the former CM Mukul Sangma for providing it an easy run in the last polls. While there had been incumbency in the previous year, it was masked by a divided opposition which allowed for an easy return.
The easy return may have in a way paved for its loss in the MP election as has been shown by its decision to align with the BJP. This move allowed every opposition worth its salt, to take advantage of the situation the party found itself it. While the CM, Conrad Sangma, following the MP election loss has announced that it would never again join election forces with the BJP, it will require more than just tokenism to make voters believe the same.
The NPP is banking hugely on the popular support the CM himself enjoys in sailing through the upcoming by-polls with his wife, Mehtab Chandi A Sangma looking the likely candidate for the party. Efforts to woo support towards them have already begun but the biggest trial for the NPP for now is to convince voters that it is not a proxy of the BJP in both the state and the centre – an uphill task given the mood voters have shown recently.
“If Mukul Sangma’s ‘Achilles Heel’ has been leaving the Congress, the NPP’s has been projecting itself as the BJP. This has made the Opposition use the opportunity to brand them both as twins, the aversion the people of the state have towards the BJP came forward and translated into votes for the Congress. After the MP election fiasco, it is going to be extremely difficult for them to distance themselves from the BJP not only in the upcoming by-polls but in the subsequent elections that follow,” felt another resident.
All India Trinamool Congress
The AITC has had their backs to wall starting from when the party was formed in the state. While the cream of the Congress left with Mukul Sangma, despite their best efforts the party was unable to make much headway into the state – mainly due to divided voters.
Going into the MP elections, the AITC felt slighted mainly due to Saleng being given a Congress ticket when an alliance (INDIA) had already been forged in the centre which included both the AITC and the Congress.
The party had the right to do so mainly because of the numbers it won in the previously concluded Assembly election with AITC getting the second largest vote share. However what the MP election has shown is that voters still want the Congress. The AITC was relegated to an insignificant third. Whether they can bounce back from the setback and come back stronger remains to be seen. It is not looking a rosy path though for the Mukul Sangma led team.
“Even if not the by-polls, where it has a significant chance in winning the seat, but in the upcoming MDC elections as well, the real test will lie in whether it can keep its stock together and ensure it gains enough to challenge the powers that be. However it really looks an uphill task for the AITC,” felt another resident.
Bharatiya Janata Party
With literally nothing to lose in the upcoming bypoll, the BJP will look to pitch its trump card for Garo Hills in the fray for the seat – Bernard Marak. While Marak came a close second in the Assembly polls to Chief minister Conrad Sangma, he has been going around the entire Garo Hills to mobilise support for the BJP. While the party itself has been looked upon suspiciously, Marak has still managed to gain popular support. In fact, it may have even led to the NPP directly aligning with the BJP just to make sure his impact could be neutralised.
Voters in Garo Hills though are still distrustful of the BJP with other parties adding fuel to the already smouldering fire. It will be an uphill task for Marak but one which he feels can still be overcome given the work he has been doing in the grassroots.
“The BJP is still looked at with suspicion within the Christian majority Meghalaya and this will continue in the coming days as well. This has been played to the hilt by other parties and may once again play into the hands of others. Whether it can convince Christian majority voters of its utility will be the litmus test. Definitely an uphill task,” felt another resident.