Modi now clueless, losing his earlier strong moorings
By Nitya Chakraborty
Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said that a week is too long a time in politics. This was in the context of post-war turmoil in British politics. As regards India, it seems that the post 2024 Lok Sabha election scenario is changing fast and the most affected has been Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is on his third consecutive term comparable only to the country’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
It is less than three months since the third NDA government led by the BJP leader Narendra Modi took oath on June 9 this year. The BJP’s Lok Sabha tally came down to 240 as against 303 in the 2019 elections.PM Modi is dependent on the support of his two major NDA partners, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) [JDU], who had been part of the opposition earlier, and who do not share the Hindutva agenda of the BJP.
In the last eighty two days since the formation of the Modi 3.0 government, few things have happened which signal the continuing diminishing stature of the Prime Minister, which was considered invincible till the 2024 Lok Sabha results came out on June 4. First, the latest Mood of the Nation survey made by a leading magazine shows that the popularity rating of Modi has drastically fallen to 49 percent as against more than 70 percent in earlier surveys. While Modi’s rating has fallen, Rahul Gandhi’s rating has reached 34 percent, a big jump from earlier less than 20 percent.
Second is that in the extended family of Sangh Parivar, Modi’s importance has gone down. Modi will remain the PM, but he has to operate within some guidelines of the RSS. He will not be allowed to be the sole arbiter of government policies without consulting top leadership of the RSS. The consultative machinery between the Modi government and RSS has been made functional. Further, for the first time, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has been allowed by the RSS leadership to have full sway in selecting candidates in the coming by-polls to the ten constituencies, by overruling Modi-Shah combo. It is becoming apparent that Yogi is steadily replacing Narendra Modi as the Hindutva mascot for the hardcore Hindutva base.
Third, at the government level, the rollback of some of the major announcements of the administration, signal the inconsistency of the leadership, which was not perceived earlier. Modi never cares for democratic practices; he is basically an authoritarian. He opts for discussions and exchange of views with others, only when he is compelled by political circumstances. That is why, the third-time PM is feeling uncomfortable as he is not sure always about the final position of the two major NDA partners.PM is vulnerable to his allies and it’s a situation he dislikes the most. Fourth, presently a big churning is going on in the corporate world. It started three years ago during Modi’s second term, but this has got wider dimension after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The non-Gujarati section of industrialists are angry at the way the government policies are attuned to suit the business interests of the top two industrialists, both hailing from the PM’s home state, Gujarat. These people, mostly Marwaris and belonging to the traditional business houses, are feeling sidelined. They are also big donors to the BJP, but they do not get commensurate benefits, they feel. Many of them are in a mood to contribute more to the Congress and other opposition parties as they muster courage on account of the BJP being on the decline.
Only this month, an unusual government notification was issued in a hurry which is not common, according to industry circles. Adani Group set up a power plant in Jharkhand for selling 100 per cent of the production to Bangladesh. After the August 5 abdication of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from the government in Dhaka and taking shelter in India, there were reports that the new rulers might review the Adani power agreement. There was no official move and even now, the interim government has not moved on this.
But the Modi government took no chances. On August 18 itself, a government notification was issued allowing Adani Group the right to sell power from the Jharkhand plant to the domestic market. This was an attempt by the Modi government to ensure the profits of the Adani Group keep flowing from that controversial power plant. Industry insiders say that every such project has some risks and the big industrialists like Adanis have the capacity to take care of those. Then why this unusual step to go out of the way to maintain the profits of a leading company? Many such Indian companies face similar risks, but rarely does the Modi government intervene to save them; then why this favourable treatment to a particular company?
This issue is taking the form of an upsurge among the aggrieved big business class, which has felt ignored during Modi’s ten-year rule. Moreover, even as the MSME sector has been the main contributor to the employment and exports of the country, it’s the big houses that go scot-free by defaulting on bank loan payments, while the small and medium entrepreneurs are punished by the banks for defaults in much smaller payments due to financial crunch. The public sector banks under the present NDA regime have a pro-big corporate bias. Expectedly, the MSME entrepreneurs are very angry at the Narendra Modi government.
It is under these circumstances that the assembly elections are going to be held in Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana by October 1, to be followed by-polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra by the year-end, and Delhi and Bihar in 2025. The indications are not favourable for BJP, even though Modi, Amit Shah and the RSS leadership are doing their best to perform better in the assembly polls. They also know, if INDIA bloc can defeat the BJP in the coming assembly elections, then that would effectively seal the fate of the Modi 3.0 government. The political impact will be such that the NDA might finally break apart and the country might even have to go for midterm elections in 2026. INDIA bloc has to do its utmost to perform well in the assembly polls to facilitate that process of change. (IPA Service)