Assembly elections are fought mainly on the basis of the state’s political climate and public mood in favour of the principal parties in the fray. These generally have little to do with the performance of the central government. Not so this time. When the results of the assembly polls in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir are out, the embarrassment could be more for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi if the exit poll results from these two states are any indication. A huge sweep for the Congress is predicted by most polls in Haryana and an upper hand for the NC-Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir.
The entire campaign scene in Haryana was seen tilting in favour of the Congress, whose leader Rahul Gandhi put up a spirited performance there in recent weeks – and he rose to the occasion in Jammu and Kashmir too. Fact is, the BJP was not given a majority in the Haryana assembly polls five years ago. The lacklustre rule of Manoharlal Khattar was the principal reason. The BJP managed to retain power with the help of a new regional outfit, which too is faring poorly in the present exit poll results. In Jammu and Kashmir, despite the positive strides after revocation of the special status in 2019, the BJP and ally PDP failed to impress the people. The Abdullahs and others may have the last laugh there this time. Had the BJP and Mehbooba Mufti made serious efforts there to win over the people with more positive action, the evolving scenario would have favoured them. But, as is evident elsewhere too, the BJP continues to show a sense of complacence on the governance front everywhere. It retained Madhya Pradesh thanks to the clout of Shivraj Singh Chouhan and wrested Odisha on an anti-incumbency wave. The Congress came from behind and grabbed power in Telangana and Karnataka.
What would happen in Maharashtra next month and Jharkhand and Delhi early next year are anybody’s guess. There’s little to show the BJP is in pole position in these states. BJP’s lead position in Maharashtra for the past few years could now be a thing of the past. It could not build on the positives there. Tainted Arvind Kejriwal is still likely to put up a big fight in Delhi. If the BJP loses some of these states, the cohesion of the alliance government that Narendra Modi leads now could be seriously hurt. There are those who suspect whether Modi can complete his five-year term as a resurgent Congress could perhaps depend on weathercocks like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar to ditch the BJP and pull down the government. To this extent, the assembly poll results will have high national significance.
