Troubled neighbours

The Islamic world in India’s neighbourhood is unstable – with a series of incidents rocking terrorist-infested Pakistan; and the interim government of Bangladesh headed by Mohammad Yunus facing heavy odds against its survival. Pakistan, which nurtured terrorist outfits for decades, is now largely at the receiving end. The ambush of the Jaffar Express on its way from Quetta to Peshawar by Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) militants led to scores of deaths and a hostage crisis that lingered. That the ambush took place in a long tunnel made rescue operations difficult, though the army later claimed it killed the militants. The BLA, seeking Independence for Balochistan from Pakistan, has repeatedly been engaged in violent acts. The militants are posing a serious threat to not just the Pakistani establishment but also China. They are also seeking immediate withdrawal of the Chinese personnel and a stop to their investments in the region. A break-up of Pakistan is a stronger possibility today than at any time in the past. Allegations from the Islamic country that India’s external intelligence agencies were fanning militancy in Balochistan are not supported by evidence. It is also possible that India’s RAW might be alert and active against machinations of the ISI military intelligence of Pakistan, which played mayhem with life in Kashmir and beyond for many years. Afghanistan, free from US occupation and having attempted to ally with Pakistan some time ago, is now on a confrontational course with the Pakistani establishment that tried to fish in troubled waters there.
Without doubt, the ISI played a major role in the ouster of Bangladesh’s popular prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who had to abdicate power and seek asylum in New Delhi in August last year. She and several Awami League leaders sought refuge in India in the immediate aftermath of the bloody takeover of the nation by students and youths. Muhammad Yunus, who took charge as chief adviser to the government, is now less confident of its survival. Several factors are undercutting the governance system there, with fears of a military takeover being too pronounced. A senior Awami leader’s claim this week that Hasina would soon return as PM is perhaps aimed at giving a morale boost to the besieged party’s rank and file. Large sections of the people in Bangladesh are set against chances of a domination of Bangladesh yet again by Pakistan and they are against the spread of militancy.
India is watching the scenario from close quarters. The attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh by the new dispensation’s supporters have reduced, but their safety is still at stake. Any aggravation of the scenario against Hindus there would be invitation to trouble – a direct intervention by India. Pakistan, its hands full with the crisis situations on multiple fronts there, including a serious financial crisis, will not be in a position to play around to further muddy the waters in Bangladesh.