A major row is unfolding with a question mark being raised on the long-awaited Delimitation process under which parliamentary constituencies would be re-drafted based on their new population strengths. As per a Constitutional requirement, the nation is required to undertake this process after every national census. The last census was conducted in 2011, which however was not fully completed or publicised due to various reasons; and there was no subsequent delimitation. The next census is expected in 2026, but chances are that this too would be dragged, or not completed. In fact, the delimitation exercise took place only three times – in 1951, 1961 and 1971 – after which the subversion of the nation’s established systems was spectacular, thanks mainly to the overall degradation of the leadership quality at the nation’s apex.
The present row has to do with a scenario wherein the five southern states would likely see a reduction in the numbers of their parliamentary seats, while states like Uttar Pradesh in the north would get larger numbers of seats, based on the massive increase in population in the north and a reduction in the southern states. The South, led prominently by Tamil Nadu’s chief minister MK Stalin, has warned against “injustice” being done to them. He argues that the region’s zealous adherence to and promotion of the Family Planning norm led to the present scenario. Andhra Pradesh’s chief minister Chandrababu Naidu has exhorted Telugus to produce more children – even as the nation is struggling with the problem of population explosion. Stalin warns his people that a Damocles’ Sword is hanging over their heads in the form of the Delimitation exercise.
Notably, the number of MPs in the lower house of Parliament had risen from 494 to 543 decades ago. While the Constitution originally stipulated that each MP in Lok Sabha should represent around 7.5 lakh people, the present scenario itself is a huge over-stretching of this norm. Now, on average, an MP represents 25 lakh people. Worse, an MP from Uttar Pradesh represents about 30 lakh persons on average, while an MP from low-birth Kerala represents only 17 lakh people. In a scenario wherein the northern states get a larger number of seats, the political significance is higher. These are the states where the BJP is well-entrenched. If the next parliament polls are fought after a delimitation exercise, chances are that the principal opposition – the Congress that still has better hopes from the South — would stand to lose in a big way. Prime Minister Narendra Modi keeps avoiding a confrontation on several contentious issues, as he does not want to face situations head on. He can be trusted to vacillate on this issue too, but for the fact that his party would be the main gainer from the delimitation exercise. Stalin might know as much and hence is likely to raise the pitch on this count.
