Fear of the unknown

The subcontinent is gripped by a fear of the unknown – and more so Pakistan, where the political establishment is spending some anxious moments and the military brass is in readiness against any offensive from India. At a time when the national economy is in doldrums, Pakistan can ill afford a war. That India contemplates a military action was all too clear from the very start after the Pahalgam terrorist attack on hapless Hindu tourists on April 22. The religiously loaded attack gave a deeper twist to the Kashmir saga, forcing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to up the ante. That no action has taken place for days on end only added to Pakistan’s worries. Instead of an abrupt, casual hit, it could be that India is fashioning a harder response or retaliation with calculated, well-planned, well-organised steps. The fire-spitting in the past seven days along the border region, between Indian and Pakistani soldiers, is perhaps a signal to the larger engagement. Both sides are keeping their powder dry.
A war is no more fought on conventional lines. The US war on Iraq in 2003 was waged principally from the air. Patriot missiles flattened Baghdad’s high-rise government buildings one after another, night after night, from the US military ships in the sea. The war was virtually over in a matter of a few days, and yet it killed an unspecified number of service personnel and others. Unlike the US and Iraq, India and Pakistan are neighbours, which heightens the role of the land army. Still, what matters more would be the air power that the Air Force and Naval ships can display. What kind of a strike India plans is unclear. Pakistan’s information minister reflected his nation’s apprehensions when he said India was planning a war on the “pretext” of Pahalgam “with ulterior motives.” In 1984, India captured the strategically important Siachen Glacier from Pakistan. Clearly, India’s wait after Pahalgam meant that it would not be a touch-and-go this time, as had happened in Balakot in 2019. Pakistan didn’t learn a lesson from Balakot and terrorists continued to be patronized by the state there. India gives due weight to peace in the subcontinent. A line has to be drawn between what’s possible and what should be attempted at and achieved.
To Pakistan’s disadvantage, world opinion is against its patronization of terror. While the US has been in touch with both nations, urging them not to destabilize the region with war-cries, this would only have a limited impact. China is duty-bound to stand by Pakistan also as its interests in PoK, vis-à-vis the Belt and Road Economic Corridor initiative through this disputed landmass, are well-documented. India’s attempt, obviously, is not to destroy its neighbour but to make it see reason at this belated hour and stop its patronization of terror. Strong actions are inevitable even as there could be collateral damage in any military offensive.