Washington, July 13: The debate over President Donald Trump’s sweeping budget-and-policy package is shaping the 2026 midterm battle for control of the House of Representatives. The outcome will set the tone for Trump’s final two years in the Oval Office. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to break the GOP’s chokehold on Washington and reestablish a power center to counter Trump. There’s added pressure to flip the House given that midterm Senate contests are concentrated in Republican-leaning states, making it harder for Democrats to reclaim that chamber.
As Republicans see it, they’ve now delivered broad tax cuts, an unprecedented investment in immigration enforcement, and new restraints on social safety net programs. Democrats see a law that rolls back health insurance access and raises costs for middle-class Americans while cutting taxes mostly for the rich, curtailing green energy initiatives, and restricting some workers’ organizing rights. “It represents the broken promise they made to the American people,” said Rep Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat who chairs the party’s House campaign arm. “We’re going to continue to hold Republicans accountable for this vote.”
Whether voters see it that way will be determined on a district-by-district level, but the battle will be more intense in some places than others. Among the 435 House districts, only 69 contests were decided by less than 10 percentage points in the 2024 general election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far identified 26 Democratic-held seats it must defend vigorously, along with 34 GOP-held seats it believes could be ripe to flip. Republicans’ campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has so far listed 18 GOP incumbents as priorities, plus two districts opened by retirements. There are a historically low number of so-called crossover districts: Only 13 Democrats represent districts Trump carried in 2024, while just three Republicans serve districts Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried.
Both committees are busy recruiting challengers and open-seat candidates and more retirements could come, so the competitive map will evolve. Still, there are clusters of districts guaranteed to influence the national result. California, despite its clear lean to Democrats statewide, has at least nine House districts expected to be up for grabs: three in the Central Valley and six in southern California. Six are held by Democrats, three by the GOP. Pennsylvania features four districts that have been among the closest national House races for several consecutive cycles.
Democrats fight to define the GOP, fighting to define the GOP beyond bumper-sticker labels – Trump’s preferred “Big Beautiful Bill” versus Democrats’ “Big Ugly Bill” retort. The 900-page law includes USD 4.5 trillion in tax cuts and makes permanent existing rates and brackets approved during Trump’s first term. Republicans and their allies have hammered vulnerable Democrats for “raising costs” on American households by opposing the bill. GOP campaign aides point to the popularity of individual provisions: boosting the USD 2,000 child tax credit to USD 2,200 (some families at lower income levels would not get the full credit), new deductions on tip and overtime income and auto loans; and a new deduction for older adults earning less than USD 75,000 a year.
Democrats point to 2018, when they notched a 40-seat net gain in House seats to take control away from the GOP. This year, Democrats have enjoyed a double-digit swing in special elections around the country when compared to 2024 presidential results. Democrats say that this reflects voter discontent with Trump once he’s actually in charge. Republicans answer that Trump’s job approval remains higher at this point than in 2017. Democrats must corral voters who are not a threat to vote for Republicans but could stay home. (AP)
