From C K Nayak
Nay Pyi Taw (Myanmar): Besides the usual euphoria over Dr Manmohan Singh’s official visit after a quarter century here, one question was lurking in everybody’s mind – how both the neighbours will jointly deal with the Northeast insurgents specially NSCN (K) faction.
The Prime Minster will certainly take up the issue of Naga militants operating from the soil of Myanmar even after the Government signed a peace accord with the dominant faction in that country.
Incidentally India has also signed ceasefire agreements first with NSCN(IM) and then with NSCN (K) in Nagaland but sporadic violence and fratricidal war is still on.
As per the signed last month , the ethnic minorities will get autonomy in three districts- Lahe, Leshi and Nanyun, which fall in Sagaing — a northwestern administrative region of Myanmar.
The agreement also provides NSCN-K members with the freedom to move ‘unarmed’ across the country. But within India the rival and dominant NSCN(IM) wants unification of all Naga inhabitated areas in entire Northeast.
It has also been reported that NSCN-K is trying to acquire more rights in the Naga areas of Kachin and Sagaing region. Interestingly, Myanmar’s 2008 constitution provides for the grouping together of Lahe, Leshi and Nanyun in a Naga self-administrative zone, which proves beyond doubt that the autonomy deal is part of a comprehensive plan of Nay Pyi Taw rather than an ad-hoc move. The decision, which has invoked mixed responses from both within and outside, is likely to have long-term implications not only on the ethnic politics of the Naga-inhabited regions, but also for India’s northeast and Myanmar.
Incidentally, the other two significant players in the Naga politics — THE NSCN-IM (Isak Muivah) and newly constituted NSCN-Khole-Kitovi have expressed their displeasure, although citing different reasons.
For the record, all three factions have different visions for Nagaland.
While the NSCN-IM wants the incorporation of neighbouring Naga-inhabited areas with existing boundaries of Nagaland and the NSCN-K aims to incorporate Myanmarese Naga with Nagaland, NSCN-Khole-Kitovi, to a great extent, holds a status quo-ist position on the boundary demarcation of Nagaland. By virtue of being an immediate neighbour infested by the insurgent groups, India is likely to get affected by the new twist in the situation.
Unlike in case of Bhutan and Bangladesh, India was not informed beforehand of the NSCN-K or the Myanmar agreement and it did not go well within the Indian establishment.
But official sources clarified that it was an internal decision of Myanmar for peace and development in that country which is on expected lines.
India has imposed conditions on the NSCN-K, as part of the ceasefire agreement to ensure that insurgent groups like the Paresh Barua-led United Liberation Front of Asom and the Manipur-based Peoples Liberation Army do not use the NSCN-K controlled region of Myanmar for anti-India activities.
The conditions include: First, strictly adhere to ceasefire ground rules; secondly, do not extend any help to anti-India insurgent groups; thirdly, make all possible efforts to stop factional killings and refrain from violence; and finally, 45 of the group’s top functionaries will have to carry hologram-bearing identity cards, so that their whereabouts are kept track of during the ceasefire.
To restrict the NSCN-K’s capabilities and influence in inflicting damage in the future, India is mulling over the initiation of a dialogue with the NSCN-Khole-Kitovi, which is seemingly the only faction intending to solve the problem within the present boundaries of Nagaland.
The dialogue process is likely to commence in June. New Delhi is already in longest continuing peace deal with NSCN (IM).
Considering the current situation, the NSCN-K-Myanmar peace deal is likely to remain confined within the borders of Myanmar. But it is also likely that the NSCN-K might try to use the agreement with Myanmar as a brownie point in dealing with India. It seems after its successful bids first with Bhutan and then with Bangladesh, India and Myanmar might try to beef up the joint mechanism to deal with insurgency issues.
Both India and Myanmar will have to make sure that the objectives of gaining short-term peace do not hamper their long-term national security interests, official sources said.