Himalayas in for ‘mega quake’ this century
A ‘MEGA earthquake’ is likely to strike the Himalayas this century, causing catastrophic landslides and floods and killing more than 40,000 people, Indian and US geologists have warned. Scientists from the National Geophysical Research Institute of India and Stanford University, United States, analysed the fault that separates the Asian and Indian continental plates. Images of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault showed that a segment of it dips downwards by 15 degrees, and is steeper and further north than suggested by previous observations. This dip could rupture and cause an earthquake of magnitude 8 or more, often referred to as a mega earthquake. The researchers predict that the segment will break over a larger area of the fault and create a larger magnitude earthquake than previously thought. “The larger the area of the fault that breaks, the more energy is released, and the larger the magnitude of the earthquake,” says Simon Klemperer, professor of geophysics at Stanford University and co-author of the work. “It will happen — the question is when. I would be very surprised if we didn’t have a magnitude 8 earthquake somewhere along the Himalayan Front this century.” The study, presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in San Francisco last month, measured ground movements. By placing seismometers closer together in one area, the researchers have been able to produce a more detailed image of the MHT. Klemperer says a big earthquake would start at the top of the sloping segment. “This is in central Nepal — where Kathmandu is — but such a big earthquake would devastate a much larger area. This would cause huge landslides, some of which would dam rivers, and produce large lakes. There would be catastrophic floods,” he says. Brian Tucker, president of GeoHazards International, an organisation that works to improve the seismic safety of Bhutan, northern India, Nepal and Pakistan, agrees that a large earthquake would occur. “We estimated about 40,000 people would die in Kathmandu Valley alone if such a large earthquake struck Nepal 15 years ago when the population of the Kathmandu Valley was about 1.5 million. Since then the population has multiplied many fold and the quality of construction has in general worsened,” he says. Tucker said that to prevent large-scale damage, new hospitals and schools should be designed and built to be resistant to earthquakes, and existing buildings should be strengthened, as well as “developing and enforcing appropriate land use plans and modern building codes”. (SciDev)
India’s ‘model’ shift to inclusive innovation
A LEADING Indian scientist and policymaker is calling on developing countries to adopt an “emerging paradigm” of affordable, less complex and inclusive innovation to promote development and cut poverty. Raghunath Mashelkar, former director-general of India’s Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, and now president of the Global Research Alliance, an organisation that promotes the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), says India has good models for innovation which are reducing complexity and the cost of goods, and which are leading to social inclusion and access to economic opportunities. In a keynote presentation, he told the Conference on Innovation for Inclusion Development, organised alongside the 6th Conference on Micro Evidence on Innovation and Development recently in Cape Town, South Africa, that the benefits of science must reach the poorest people as part of new thinking to help tackle poverty. “Getting improved goods for less cost to more people while eliminating social disharmony is key to achieving the MDGs,” said Mashelkar, who also chairs India’s National Innovation Foundation. He added that the paradigm shift must avoid technologically advanced products with many features, and instead focus on efficient, high-quality products that create livelihood opportunities for excluded populations. An example he gave is 3nethra, an eye-testing device developed in India that can detect conditions such as cataracts, diabetes and glaucoma. “If we provide a hepatitis B vaccine that is 40 times cheaper, cataract eye surgery 100 times cheaper, open-heart surgery 20 times cheaper and an artificial foot 300 times cheaper, wealth and health for all can be a reality,” said Mashelkar. All these are not dreams and have been done, he told the conference. Parveen Arora, an advisor to India’s department of science and technology, said innovation that supports local enterprises with skills development and finance is critical to innovative products for low-income customers. He noted India’s launch of the US$1 billion Inclusive Innovation Fund, aimed at researchers who consult poor citizens on innovations that could transform their lives. Aroraadded that putting inclusive innovation in educational and research training could be beneficial. Anupam Khanna, chief economist at India’s National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), said that technology could transform his country’s ability to provide basic services to the poor, such as healthcare, education and banking. For innovations to work, excluded people must be involved in their development, stressed Fernando Santiago, senior programme at the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) in Canada. “Rural people are smart and we do not engage them enough,” he said. Esperanza Lasagabaster, manager of an innovation, technology and entrepreneurship global practice at the World Bank, added that although companies in large emerging markets are beginning to develop innovations for low-income markets, these are not yet aimed at the very poor. She said research institutes should target the poor while encouraging more private sector investment in innovation programmes. The conference was run by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and South Africa’s department of science and technology. (SciDev)