MOSCOW: Russia’s decision last week to sign a peace accord on Ukraine does not mean that the Kremlin is backing down, rather that President Vladimir Putin is prepared to be patient in pursuit of his ultimate objective.
That aim, his own reflections and those of people close to his way of thinking seem to indicate, is one day to re-unite Russian speaking peoples, including those living within the borders of Ukraine, within one common home.
As a skilled tactician, Putin knows that to push too fast to achieve this ambition could be damaging for Russia – as demonstrated by the Western threat of tough sanctions and Europe’s rush to wean itself off Russian gas supplies.
Signing the four-way agreement on Ukraine in Geneva last week, and thereby showing the West that it was willing to compromise, made tactical sense for Russia.
With another four years before he needs to seek re-election, and the strong chance of winning another 6-year term after that, Putin can take his time, giving him an advantage over his Western rivals whose policies are driven by more short-term imperatives.
“Now the main thing is to keep the powder dry and be prepared for the eventuality that the crisis in Ukraine is going to last a long time,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a journal which has the Russian foreign minister on its editorial board.
“Agreements will be broken and then made again. Russia, for once, is not on the defensive, it is advancing. That means it doesn’t have to get flustered and can keep plowing its furrow.”
Putin’s long game means he is unlikely to actively seek to involve Russian in an armed conflict over Ukraine any time soon.
But equally, it means that European states will have to adapt to a long-term future when persistent sanctions complicate their trade relations and with the threat of disruption to their Russian gas supplies hanging over them constantly.
The Kremlin’s official objectives in Ukraine are limited: protecting Russia’s own security, countering NATO expansion, and helping Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine if they come under threat of persecution. Russia denies any plans to invade.
Last week at Geneva’s InterContinental Hotel, chief diplomats from Russia, the European Union, the United States and Ukraine signed a document calling on illegal armed groups in Ukraine – including the pro-Russian separatists occupying more than a dozen public buildings – to disarm and go home.
By Sunday, the deal was already fraying, after several people were killed in a shootout at a checkpoint manned by separatists. Russia blamed Kiev for failing to implement the Geneva deal.
Still, people close to the talks said they were notable because it was the first time, in multiple attempts, that Russian’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has sat down for discussions on Ukraine with a mandate to do a deal.
But one European diplomat expressed skepticism, saying the agreement was a feint by Moscow.
By showing it was prepared to talk, the diplomat said, the Kremlin relieved the pressure that was building, and bought some time before further sanctions were imposed. (Reuters)