By KC Reddy
A well planned and carefully calibrated “surgical strike” by Indian special forces, have not only taken Pak authorities by surprise but also have a profound effect on Pakistan ‘s policy of encouraging terrorism on their soil .Leave aside the political controversies whipped up on the authenticity of surgical strikes but they sent a clear and strong message to Pakistan authorities that cross border terrorism will not be tolerated any longer . Prime Minister Modi cautioned to avoid “chest thumping” over army strikes across the LoC (Line of Control) and allow the matter to be dealt by the designated professionals who are already dealing with the issue in a professional manner. It is essential to recognize the commendable work done by armed forces , but at the same time more focus is needed to address various aspects that are likely to be exploited by Pak authorities ,if unattended , to achieve their objectives.
Some jingoistic populists even favored a more stringent retaliation to Uri incident in the form of full scale military campaign .Such advocacy may earn popularity among some sections of the masses but it lacks merit. Neither India nor Pakistan can ill-afford to go for war on account of death ,destruction and colossal amount of costs involved – a moderate war will cost approximately 15-20 cores a day. According to some estimates the Kargil war costed us 12 crores per day. Moreover, the recent World economic forum ‘s Global Competitiveness index for 2016-17 indicated a significant change in India ‘s rank in the last two years . India‘s position from 71 in 2014 has changed to 39 in the Global competitive index list. In order to keep its global image as an economic power, India has to keep the pace of change without getting entangled into wars.
Similarly some other emotionally charged populists advocated abrogation of the Indus water Treaty. There is no need to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty- As per the Indus Water Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960 , India can use 20% share of water from western rivers namely Indus , Chenab , Jhelum for storage , Irrigation and for generation of electricity .
This option can be exercised by India without abrogating the Indus Water Treaty and hence Pakistan will have no case to resort to international judicial forums. Once India start using its own share of Indus water, it will mount significant internal pressure on Pakistan as there is already a problem on sharing of waters between Sind and Punjab provinces in Pakistan.
Encouraged by the success of surgical strikes, some of the jingoistic populists’ even advocated overt support to Baluoch insurgents in Pakistan with least realizing the fact that India will lose its leverage of exposing Pakistan in aiding and abetting terrorist activities in Kashmir.
It is often argued that Pakistan is our neighbor and hence we, somehow, have to maintain good neighborly relations with them -after all they were part of the same family historically. This is not a sensible argument .How can there be a good or friendly relations in an environment of suspicion and hatred? Probably India may be better off with an openly declared hostile relations rather than maintaining a façade of hypocritical friendly relations.
The peculiar behavior of Pakistan in fomenting trouble in Jammu and Kashmir, using terrorism is an instrument of their foreign policy is often explained with the excuse that the real control of their state is in the hands of some military and mullah elements .Till Pakistan comes out of the control of these elements, India should not make efforts to have friendly relations with Pakistan.
Considering these pros and cons of various options, diplomatic isolation of Pakistan is the most prudent and workable option at this point of time, to elicit support from world powers and mount pressure on Pakistan so that it will desist from encouraging terrorism across the Line of Control (LoC) in future .
The postponement of 19th SAARC summit which was scheduled to be held in November, due to India, Bangladesh ,Bhutan Afghanistan pulling out , is a feather in India’s “ diplomatic success cap” over Pakistan.
India ‘s successful pulling out of the SAARC summit in Islamabad ,followed by similar actions by Bangladesh, Bhutan , Afghanistan and Sri Lanka made Pakistan to realize the fact that regional sentiment is against terrorism. So long India maintains in the regional and international forums that their fight is not against Pakistani people, rather their fight is only against terrorists and their supporters in Pakistani government agencies and their financiers , India is bound to garner more support from other countries in isolating Pakistan . India’s diplomatic efforts should be more focused to elicit similar response from the UN security council members like US , UK , Russia and France .Mere statements from these countries will not have impact on Pakistan unless followed by concrete actions like cutting the financial aid and imposing international sanctions on the Pak government authorities who are patronizing terrorism and supporting cross border terrorism .
In the aftermath of surgical strikes, it became a common concern -What steps have to be taken by India both internally and externally to thwart attempts by Pakistani authorities in the coming months.
So far as the actions that are to be taken internally are concerned, like the security forces have to maintain strict vigil not only along the border but also inside the country , intelligence agencies have to work overtime to monitor the activities of the suspected militants and their supporters, security force’s preparedness to thwart any attempts of hijacking , hostage taking and bold attacks etc on targets of infrastructure and transport systems ,assume importance . However the crux of the problem lies in how fast the normalcy can be restored in Jammu and Kashmir as Pakistan continue to exploit the Kashmiri youth as long as the situation in Kashmir valley remains volatile .
In the context of actions that are to be taken externally, the security and safety of NRIs (Non resident Indians) working and living outside India, assumes paramount importance due to their vulnerability
Apart from the sustained diplomatic campaign , the security and safety measures for Indians working and staying outside India ,have to reviewed and comprehensive mechanism in terms of information dissemination ,calling tree mechanism ,security advisories from time to time ,have to be devised for their safety and security against threats like kidnapping ,hostage taking ,mass killings etc.
The encouraging sign is that the efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically seem to have started paying dividends finally. Latest media reports indicate that the civilian government in Pakistan have realized the growing international isolation of Pakistan and expressed their concern to Pakistani military leadership in the All Parties Conference chaired by Nawaz Sharif on 3 rd October. The principal demands of India namely – completion of the Pathankot investigation and visible action against Jaish- I- Mohammad and demand of United States on the action be taken against Haqqani net work , also prominantly figured in the discussions . ISI Director General , Gen Akhtar and National Security Adviser Janjua have been tasked to visit all four provinces and convey that military-led intelligence agencies are not to interfere if law enforcement agencies act against the banned militant groups .This only confirms the earlier reports that ISI indeed, was interfering whenever the local law enforcement agencies in Pakistan wanted to take action against the banned militant groups .It was further reported that Nawaz Sharif directed speedy completion of Pathankot investigation and restart the Mumbai blast trials pending in Rawalpindi anti terrorism court . Undoubtedly, these are refreshing decisions in the right direction but time will only tell how far these decisions will be translated into action on the ground and how much sincerity is attached to these discussions by Pak authorities .
The efforts to enhance diplomatic isolation of Pakistan should be continued probably with more vigor, however, caution need to be exercised not to lose the good will and sympathy gained from other countries during this period as any haphazard or hasty action is bound to reverse the recent diplomatic gains by India. It should be borne in mind that India’s retaliatory actions may not be directed against the general public of Pakistan; rather they should be focused more against those who are aiding and abetting terrorism.
Prime Minister Modi’s election commitment of “minimum government, maximum governance” rightly has a wide spread appeal and acceptance. Similarly it may be considered to adopt a policy of “minimum talk and maximum work “in dealing with Pakistan.
(K C Reddy, I.P.S( retd) is Former Chief Security Adviser, United Nations)