By Albert Thyrniang
The estimated military and civilian casualties in the First World War numbered about 40 million. The Triple Entente, of Allied Powers lost over 6 million military personnel while the Central Powers lost over 4 million making the four year global conflict one of the deadliest in the history of mankind. The Second World War was even worse. In fact it was the deadliest war in history. 70 to 85 million people perished in the conflict between the Axis Powers, consisting mainly of fascist countries of Germany, Italy and Japan and the Allied Powers led by the Soviet Union, United Kingdom and United States of America. Civilians deaths alone were estimated to be 50 to 55 million while military deaths were anywhere between 21 to 25 million.
One of the longest and bloodiest wars of the 20th century was the Iran-Iraq one. On 22 September 1980, Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbouring country. The leader of the Ba’athist regime thought it would be an easy victory against a country that was still chaotic under the Iran Revolution. However, after nearly eight years his “catastrophic miscalculation” left his country on the defensive. When the war ended on 20 August 1988 through a UN brokered ceasefire, the overall death toll was estimated at one million for Iran and 250,000-500,000 for Iraq.
Described by many as Europe’s deadliest conflicts since World War II, the Yugoslav Wars from 1991 to 2001 that led to the collapse of former Yugoslavia resulted in the death of 140,000 people according to one estimate. War crimes, genocides, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity and rape marked the conflicts in the ethnically and religiously diverse Balkan states. The brutal and hideous wars have a devastating social and economic impact on the constituent parties that no quantitative estimates can accurate account.
Besides the incalculable loss of human lives the above conflicts have striking similarities. Some are noted here. Those who started did not win. In the First World War the primary aggressor, Germany had to suffer the humiliation of accepting the agreement prepared by its number one enemies, Britain and France to end the war. The Allied Powers might consider themselves victors but Russia’s total casualties were 9,150,000, British Empire 3,190,235 and France 6,160,800.
The Second World War is pretty much the same story. The dictator and Nazi leader, Adolf Hitler who initiated the war by invading Poland had to commit suicide as he couldn’t bear to see Germany’s military might collapse with the fall of Poland and the impending capture of Berlin by advancing Soviet forces. Soon after his country and people, whom he considered a superior race, and the Axis Powers had to surrender unconditionally to the Allies. Japan, the Asian imperialist had no choice but had to meekly surrender as atomic bombs wiped out 90 per cent of Hiroshima killing almost two-thirds of 330,000 of its residents and 80,000 of the 250,000 Nagasaki’s residents. Meanwhile the Allied Powers might have celebrated 8 May 1945 as VE Day (Victory Day in Europe) and 15 August 1945 as VJ Day (Victory Day in Japan) but not before suffering up to 85,000,000 casualties accounting up to 3.7 per cent of the total population of the Allied countries in all the continents.
Human life is the immediate victim but wars leave a huge and devastating impact on the economy. World War I gravely damaged the economy of all countries involved. The toll on Russia was such that its economy almost collapsed. Though in the US the economy had a positive effect after World War II, the atomic bombs on Japan’s twin cities had a grave impact on its economy. That a new Japan was rebuilt after the cruel disaster is another matter. But the destruction was Japan’s worst in its history. Even the US lost enormously because it was forced to pay one million dollars per day till 1951 to help Japan recover.
In 2012 the estimated economic impact of war and violence was to the tune of eleven per cent of Gross World Product (GWP0 or 9.46 trillion dollars. The World Bank estimated that the more than 630,000 Syrian refugees cost Jordan over USD 2.5 billion a year or 6 per cent of its GDP. It was estimated that by the year 2000, the government of Sri Lanka had spent $US 274 million on its war against the LTTE.
This short essay does not permit to even threadbare discuss other adverse effects of wars but destruction of social infrastructure and services like education and health care system, displacement of people, shrinking of labour force, altered social life, increase of poverty, rape of women and girls, genocides, ethnic cleansing are some of the evils that we have seen with our own eyes.
Now, since Pulwama, there has been a craving for war by a section of the Indian population, particularly the far right wing and the politically backed media. With elections around the corner, the BJP has politicised the massacre of 44 CRPF jawans. The government supporters think that anti-Pakistan rhetoric and even a war against our neighbour will win them the 2019 general election. It is a vote for war scenario. The politically affiliated television anchors create a war hysteria to win TRP ratings. It’s a shame really!
All those who clamour and cry for war better learn from history; if they refuse they are the greatest fools. In an armed conflict there will be deaths and bloodshed, destruction and devastation, grief and mourning on both sides – India and Pakistan. There will be no clear winner. This is amply clear from what has happened so far. What seems sure by now is that the air strike in Balakot did not hit any terrorist camp. The claim that 300 terrorists of the Jaish-e-Mohammed died or were injured is untrue. We are unable to provide proof for it. Pakistan stroked back and claimed to have shot down at least one Indian air craft leading to the capture of an IAF pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman. Pakistan was able to take the moral high ground by releasing Abhinandan. So those who think that Pakistan will be revenged and defeated are wrong. In a war, victory and defeat, successes and set back, gains and losses will take place on both sides.
Some infer that since India emerged victorious in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965 and 1971 a third war will be the same. It might be true but the Indian army suffered 11,479 casualties in the 1965 war and Pakistan lost 5800. In 1971, though India helped to liberate Bangladesh thousands of soldiers were taken prisoners, many of whom are still in jails of both countries. India could not prevent the ‘genocidal’ rape of 200,000 and 400,000 Bangladeshi women and girls. Plus times have changed. Both are now nuclear powers. What if another Indo-Pak war leads to use of nuclear warheads? What will be the casualties? What will be the scale of destruction? Will bombs be dropped in Delhi and Lahore or Islamabad?
The behaviour of our Prime Minster, Narendra Modi, post Pulwama is not exemplary. He was insensitive to slain CRPF martyrs. He was out to please his right wing constituency. He was interested only in gaining political mileage for his party. It was all business as usual even when the country was on edge. He did not cancel any of his election campaigns. He was a one-man show. The Foreign and Defence Ministers were invisible. He did show respect to the Opposition. He did not even attend the all party meeting. He did not take people along. He did not address the nation. He did not display any statesmanship. He was a leader found wanting.
In comparison the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan has come out as a balanced and mature leader. He addressed the nation twice. He faced the joint parliament and made important speeches. His tone was reconciliatory. He appealed for peace. He extended an olive branch to India. He immediately declared the release of the captured pilot. At the same time he portrayed himself as a strong leader. He promised actions against terrorists if provided actionable proofs. He won many hearts in Pakistan and in India. He emerged a winner, perceptible and diplomatically.
With the safe return of the Indian pilot, de-escalation might take place. Temperatures might cool down. War has no solution. Dialogue is the way forward. No war is worth it. In a war there will be no outright victor. The only loser is humanity.