By Gyan Pathak
The picture emerged in the fag-end of the first phase of election campaign for 91 Lok Sabha seats spread over 20 states going to vote on April 11 suggests the most unexpected results from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. BJP may lose in UP and North-East but is comfortable in Maharashtra and Bihar. Congress is set to gain a little in North-East, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and in some UTs. Among the regional parties, TDP, TRS, and YSRCP fortunes may surprise all.
Among the 42 constituencies in Andhra Pradesh (25) and Telangana (17), BJP seems to be in contest on only three seats – Narsapuram and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Secundarabad in Telangana. No wonder if they could not win even a single seat in Andhra Pradesh due to anti-incumbency. Congress may increase its tally by a couple of seats in AP-Telangana where it presently holds only two seats, because there is a little anti-incumbency against the states’ ruling parties. Most surprising results will come from these two states because 25 of the 42 constituencies had less than ten percent winning margin in the 2014 elections. These are Anakapalle TDP winning margin (wm) 4.21, Anantapur TDP wm 5.15, Bapatla TDP wm 2.78, Bhongir TRS wm 2.54, Chelvela TRS wm 5.59, Chittoor TDP wm 3.70, Eluru TDP wm 8.54, Guntur TDP wm 5.59, Hindupur TDP wm 8.33, Kakinada TDP wm 0.31, Khammam YSRCP wm 1.04, Kurnool YSRCP wm 4.18, Machilipatnam TDP wm 7.15, Mahabubabad TRS wm 3.13, Mahbubnagar TRS wm 0.26, Malkajgiri TDP wm 1.75, Nandyal YSRCP wm 8.83, Narasaraopet TDP wm 2.76, Narsapuram BJP wm 7.90, Nellore YSRCP wm 1.14, Ongole YSRCP wm 1.29, Tirupati YSRCP wm 3.11, Vijayawada TDP wm 6.28, Visakhapatnam BJP wm 7.83, and Vizianagaram TDP wm 9.60.
The states in the North-East may dishearten the BJP. In Arunachal Pradesh, though there is anti-incumbency against the BJP, it seems status quo may continue – one seat to go to Congress and the other to BJP. Congress may retain the Outer Manipur seat along with Shillong and Tura seats of Meghalaya. It may lose the Mizoram seat. NDPP is better placed in Nagaland compared to Congress. SDF is again set to win Sikkim Lok Sabha seat while CPM is well placed in Tripura West. In Kaliabor in Assam, the fight is between AGP and Congress. It is most probable that Congress may retain this seat. In Jorhat, Dibrugarh, and Lakhimpur, BJP candidates have upper hand, but in Tejpur BJP candidate is facing real challenge from the Congress candidate. This seat was won by BJP last time by a margin of only 8.92 per cent. Congress may wrest this seat from BJP this time.
Among the four seats of Bihar – Aurangabad, Gaya, and Nawada are BJP seats while Jamui is held by LJP. At the height of Modi wave in 2014, BJP’s Sushil Kumar Singh could win the Aurangabad seat by a margin of only 8.63 per cent. He is seeking re-election this time too. He is facing a tough fight from HAM(S) candidate Upendra Prasad. Gaya seat has gone to NDA partner JD(U) while Nawada to LJP. Chirag Paswan is seeking re-election from Jamui. NDA is comfortable in all the seats except Aurangabad.
Only Bastar is going to have poll in this phase in Chhattisgarh. This seat may be retained by the BJP, though there is tough fight with the Congress.
In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP is in comfortable position and can retain the seat. However in Baramula Congress is in contest with JKPDP. Congress may hope for this seat this time.
Wardha, Ramtek, Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondiya, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Chandrapur, and Yavatmal-Washim seats of Maharashtra are going to poll in this phase. BJP is comfortable in Nagpur, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Bhandara-Gondiya, Chandrapur and Wardha. They are likely to retain these seats. Ramtek seat is held by SHS and is faring well, but in Yavatmal-Washim it is in a tough fight with Congress. In 2014, SHS had won this seat by a margin of only 9.13 per cent. Anti-incumbency may cost them the seat this time and may go to Congress.
BJD is facing a tough challenge from Congress in Kalahandi, Nabarangpur and Koraput in Odisha. BJD had won these seats last time by margins of only 5.14, 0.21, 2.02 per cent respectively. They may lose these seats to Congress this time. BJP is faring well in all the five constituencies in Uttarakhand where it is likely to retain all the seats.
The most bitter fight is taking place in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, and Meerut are most likely to re-elect BJP. However, BJP may lose Saharnpur which has won the seat in 2014 by a margin of only 5.48 per cent. SP-BSP alliance is giving tough fight to BJP in Bijnor. BJP may not retain this seat this time.
Coochbehar in West Bengal has become a tough seat of AITC and it may lose this seat this time. The party had won this seat last time by a margin of only 6.59 per cent. This seat may be wrested by Left Front. In Alipurduars constituency, which AITC had won by a small margin of 1.78 per cent, there is a tough triangular fight involving AITC, Left Front, and BJP. A small swing of votes may tilt the balance.
BJP has changed its candidate fearing anti-incumbency in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Congress is giving tough fight on the seat and it has become doubtful if BJP can retain this seat. The winning margin on this seat last time was only 4.14 per cent. Congress has upper hand in Lakshadweep seat and may win this time. NCP had won this seat in 2014 by a very thin margin of only 3.56 per cent. (IPA Service)