Shillong, July 10: According to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, deficient rainfall leading to lower sowing will result in higher rice prices. The report highlights that rising global rice prices will further contribute to the increase, noting that rice constitutes approximately 4.4% of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
Major rice-producing states, including West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Assam, have experienced a deficient monsoon, affecting rice sowing. However, states with better irrigation coverage like Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana will face lesser impact.
As per IANS, except for the northwest region (59% above normal) and central India (4% above normal), all other regions have witnessed below-normal rainfall. Cumulative rainfall until July 9 was 2% above normal compared to an 8% deficit as of July 1 and 3% above normal last year. Nevertheless, the distribution of rainfall remains uneven.
The report highlights that July is a crucial period for sowing kharif crops, with around 32% of monsoon precipitation typically occurring during this month. However, as of July 7, kharif sowing was 8.7% lower compared to last year, mainly due to lower sowing of rice and pulses. The report also indicates lower production of oilseeds, jute, and cotton. On the positive side, coarse cereals and sugarcane are performing well.
Water reservoir levels as of July 7 were at 29% of the live storage capacity, the lowest in four years, primarily due to lower storage in the southern region of the country.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that July rainfall is expected to be on the upper side of the “normal” range, which is 94-106% of the long-period average (LPA). The IMD also mentions the likelihood of El Nino conditions developing by the end of July, but they could be offset by the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Certain regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Punjab, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu may experience below-normal rainfall in July, potentially affecting the sowing of paddy and pulses in those states.
While irrigation facilities have improved over the years, key kharif crops such as paddy, tur, and groundnut still heavily rely on rainfall.