By H. Srikanth
Elections to the Lok Sabha are completed in all northeastern states. The northeast sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha (LS). Of them, 14 LS constituencies are in Assam. While states like Meghalaya, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura send two MPs each, other northeastern states, namely Nagaland, Manipur and Sikkim, send one each. The northeast was in the news in the first phase of 2024 elections when violence and rigging were reported in certain polling booths in Manipur valley. In some hill areas of Manipur which went to the polls on April 19, the Kukis abstained from voting. Voters in six districts of Eastern Nagaland boycotted the elections in response to the appeal of Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO). No such incidents were reported in the elections held in Assam and Manipur during the second and third phases. Barring the incidents mentioned above, the elections in the northeast were more or less peaceful. As expected, the voting percentage was very high in Assam. The northeastern states have to wait for a couple of weeks more to know the election results. Many poll pundits assume BJP is strong in the region and hence the BJP led NDA would sweep the elections. But the reality in the northeast is complex. Each state in the region has its own trajectory, and political dynamics in the country vary from one state to another. Hence, it is necessary to understand the specificity of the political situation in each of the states.
In the 2019 general elections, BJP won in nine out of fourteen LS constituencies in Assam. Congress party then won only in three constituencies, and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and United Democratic Front (AIUDF) got one each. In the 2024 general elections, BJP is contesting in 13 constituencies, leaving three for its allies – two for Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and one for UPPL. In contrast, Congress, which identifies itself as part of the INDI Alliance, contested in 13 constituencies, leaving only Dibrugarh seat to Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). Congress did not arrive at any agreement with other INDIA partners in Assam. Despite the request from CPI (M) and other citizen groups, it did not withdraw its candidate from the Barpeta constituency. Other parties, like Trinamool Congress (AITC), United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have fielded candidates in select constituencies.
Many factors appear to go in favour of the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam for different reasons. Led by a pragmatic and shrewd Himanta Biswa Sarma, BJP stitched an effective electoral alliance in Assam. On the eve of the elections, Sarma, who is also the CM, has weakened the Congress leadership in the state and ensured defection of some key MLAs and ex-MLAs from Congress to BJP. He could neutralize powerful Muslim leaders in Assam. The delimitation exercise changed the demography of the constituencies in the state, helping the BJP to a considerable extent. Sarma exploited the locals’ fear of the illegal Bangladeshi migrants. By dividing the people on communal lines, he could neutralize the anti-CAA movement in Upper Assam, and win the confidence of Hindu refugees who had settled in the Barak valley. Some development and welfare activities that the state and central governments undertook also favour the BJP. The charisma of Narendra Modi is still intact in Assam. Although some BJP contestants are very weak, still they can pull off in the elections because of the popularity of the prime minister, Mr. Modi. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra evoked support among some sections of people. There is considerable unrest among the people over price rise, unemployment and corruption. But, the Congress party could not take advantage of the same as it lacks organizational strength to mobilize voters at the grassroots. The Congress should have appeased and won over the left activists by withdrawing its candidate from constituencies like Barpeta and Lakhimpur and leaving them to its left allies. Hence, despite the popular resentment, BJP is likely to hold on to most of the seats it won in 2019. Congress is likely to get around five seats in Assam.
The other two states where BJP appears confident are Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh. Tripura has two LS seats – Tripura East and Tripura West. BJP is contesting in both the seats. From the INDI Alliance, Congress is contesting in Tripura East and CPI (M) from Tripura West. BJP is likely to win two seats in Tripura, thanks to the pact it signed with Pradyot Debbarma’s Tipra Motha Party (TIPRA) which is fighting for constitutional guarantees for the local tribes in Tripura. BJP defeated the left front in the last two assembly elections, but it still has some hold in pockets. But the Congress party, which depended on the tribal parties, has become weak in the state. TIPRA won 13 assembly seats in the 2023 assembly elections. Realising the importance of tribal votes, BJP came forward to appease Pradyot Debbarma. Internal sources say that BJP was simultaneously prying on the MLAs of TIPRA. It is rumored that Pradyot Debbarma joined the NDA government in Tripura to prevent his MLAs and cadre from joining the BJP bandwagon for power and positions.
On April 19, 2024, Arunachal Pradesh went for simultaneous elections for Lok Sabha and legislative assembly. Arunachal Pradesh has sixty assembly seats and two LS seats. The politics in the state are always volatile. The elected representatives have a tendency to support whichever party or alliance is in power at the center. Kiren Rijiju’s elevation as a national leader and the NDA government’s focus on infrastructural projects connecting the state to the rest of India made Arunachal Pradesh a bastion of BJP in the northeast. In the 2024 elections, BJP is contesting in all assembly seats and also for two MP seats in the state. Congress has also filed nominations for two LS seats. But it has fielded candidates for only 20 assembly seats in the state. As the NDA allies like the National People’s Party of Conrad Sangma are also lending support to BJP, it is likely that the LS seats in Arunachal Pradesh will end up in the BJP’s kitty.
In Nagaland, BJP is in alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) led by Neiphiu Rio. In the assembly elections held in 2023, the NDPP secured 21 seats and its ally BJP won 13 seats. The NDA alliance had a clear majority to form the government. But other leading opposition parties in the state also joined the government, turning Nagaland into an opposition-less government. In the elections for the lone Lok Sabha seat in 2024, BJP lent support to the NDPP candidate. Congress party has also put up its candidate for the LS seat. There has been resentment brewing against the BJP-NDPP government in recent months. However, the Congress party does not have a leader like S.C. Jamir to steer the fortunes of the party. The boycott of elections in Eastern Nagaland brings down the percentage of voting in Nagaland, but does not affect the outcome. The NDPP claims it has been fighting for peaceful and honorable settlement between the Government of India and the Naga militant groups. Irrespective of whether BJP supports it, the NDPP’s victory is certain as it has enjoyed the support of almost all political parties in the state and also has the backing of the Naga militants. (To be concluded in Part II).