By H. Srikanth
In Part I of the article published in the Shillong Times on May 22, 2024, I analyzed the election scenario in the northeastern states of Assam, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, where BJP-NDA has an advantage over other parties. This concluding part of the article would focus on the election scenario in other northeastern states, where BJP-NDA will face some contest from the opposition parties.
In Meghalaya, there has been a fierce contest between the parties for the two LS seats. In the 2023 assembly elections, Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party (NPP) formed the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA-2) with the help of the United Democratic Party (UDP) and other regional parties. During the assembly elections, BJP criticized the NPP and contested separately. But when it failed to improve its tally, BJP had no option but to lend support to and become part of the MDA 2 government. The NPP, on its part, remained part of the NDA government at the center. From the bitter experience of the assembly elections in 2023, BJP understood it has no chance of winning the LS seats in Meghalaya. Hence, in the LS elections 2024, BJP lent support to the NPP candidates. In return, the NPP offered support to the BJP’s LS candidates in Arunachal Pradesh. But the BJP’s decision to support the NPP seems to have damaged the prospects of the NPP candidates in Meghalaya as the move allowed the opposition parties to brand the NPP as the B team of BJP. Apart from the NPP, the UDP, which is also a partner in the MDA 2 government, has put up its candidate for Shillong LS seat. The Voice of People’s Party (VPP), which won four assembly seats in 2023, is also contesting for the Shillong seat without joining any alliance.
Congress party in the state could have taken advantage of the anti-BJP sentiments among the voters, had it not suffered a split in 2021. Mukul Sangma, the ex-CM, left the Congress party and joined AITC. Although both Congress and AITC are part of the INDI Alliance, no seat sharing agreement could take place in Meghalaya between the two because of the rivalry between Mukul Sangma and the state Congress chief, Vincent Pala. The weakness of Congress and AITC in Shillong parliamentary constituency has gone to the advantage of the VPP, which emerged as a potential alternative to both Congress and NPP contestants for the Shillong seat. Initially, the reelection of Agatha Sangma of the NPP in Tura constituency appeared certain. But the consolidation of anti-BJP votes and the last minute shift of the TMC candidate’s votes to the Congress candidate Saleng Sangma made the contest for Tura seat even. One NPP minister admitted, its Tura candidate may win at best with a thin majority. Association with the NDA at the center appears to have gone against both the NPP and UDP candidates. BJP has little to gain in Meghalaya.
Manipur is another northeastern state, where the BJP-NDA’s victory is not all that certain. The elections for the two LS seats – Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur – have taken place under the shadow of the ethnic clashes that took place last year, which left the people in Manipur virtually divided. BJP, which is presently the ruling party in Manipur, has fielded its candidate only for the Inner Manipur seat, and lent support to its ally, the National People’s Front (NPF) candidate in the Outer Manipur constituency. In contrast, Congress fielded candidates both for the Inner and Outer Manipur constituencies. During the conflict, the state CM, Biren Singh, stood by the Meiteis and won the support of Arambai Tenggol, an activist Meiteis cultural organization. Hence, it was assumed that BJP would easily win Inner Manipur constituency. However, not everyone in the valley is happy with the BJP government. A section of the Meiteis is disappointed with Modi’s indifference and holds Biren Singh’s government responsible for the continuing tensions in the state. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which started from Manipur, had some impact in the valley as well. A section of the Meiteis is lending support to the Congress candidate, Bimol Akoijam. On the eve of the elections held during the first phase, attempts were made by Arambai Tenggol to terrorise and rig the elections in favor of the BJP. But their attempts were resented and opposed by the Meiteis themselves. Congress party has put up a spirited resistance to the BJP in the valley.
In the outer Manipur constituency, where the majority voters are the Kukis or Nagas, the contest is between Congress and the Naga People’s Front (NPF). The Kukis who suffered the most during the ethnic clashes were divided on the eve of the LS elections. While some Kuki groups wanted to boycott the LS elections, the others supported the Congress candidate. Not all Naga voters in Manipur are rallying behind the NPF as the Congress candidate, Alfred K Arthur, also happens to be a Naga. Not all Nagas are happy with the NPF’s truck with the BJP. There is a possibility of the Naga votes getting split between the NPF and Congress. As most Kukis have voted en masse for the Congress candidate, the outcome of the contest between the NPF and Congress for the outer Manipur constituency can’t be predicted in advance.
In the state of Mizoram, the contest appears to be between Mizo National Front (MNF) and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). In the 2023 assembly elections, the newly formed ZPM defeated MNF and formed the government. MNF was earlier with the NDA, but it came out of the NDA on the eve of assembly elections. ZPM openly advocated secular values and chose not to align with the NDA. The Congress party has fielded its candidate, but it is not powerful enough. Realizing that it has no base, BJP did not field any candidates in Mizoram. The ethnic attacks against the Kukis in Manipur compelled all the parties to disassociate with the BJP. As the main contestants–MNF and ZPM- are anti-BJP, whichever party wins as the MP, it may find it difficult to align with the NDA alliance at this juncture.
Sikkim is another northeastern state which had simultaneous elections for the state assembly and LS seats. In 2019, the lone LS seat in Sikkim was bagged by the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) candidate. That year, the SKM defeated the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and formed the government. After the formation of the government, the SKM joined the NDA. However, in the 2024 elections, SKM is going alone with no pre-poll alliance with the BJP. Although BJP did not win any assembly seats in 2019 elections, it engineered a defection of 10 MLAs from SDF, and later won two seats in the by-elections held in October 2019. Aspiring to be a kingmaker, BJP has filed nominations for 31 assembly seats and the lone LS seat. SDF, which suffered defection, is regrouping again. With the ex-football player, Baichung Bhutia, joining the party, SDF is again in the news. It is contesting all assembly seats and also the LS seat. Congress, which fielded candidates only for 11 assembly seats, also has a candidate for the LS seat. Although the two national parties–BJP and Congress – are contesting, the competition will be between SDF and SKF. In the state known for the aayaraams and gayaarams, it does not matter who among the two wins the lone LS seat. Whichever party secures the lone LS seat in Sikkim, it is likely to support the alliance that comes to power at the center.
The analysis presented here are based on my interactions with colleagues and social activists. It is my presumption that in Assam, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, BJP / NDA may keep its dominance. But in other northeastern states, there is a contest. BJP / NDA may lose some seats in the northeast. It is a different matter that there may be a regrouping of alliances after the election results are out. We need to watch not just the election results, but also the politics that transpire in the states after the declaration of the results. (Concluded)