By Toki Blah
A new World Order is shaping itself even as this writeup is being written and we are the fortunate ( or unfortunate ones, depending on your world view) who are witness to this Global drama unfolding itself all around us. The Old World Order comprised of the West Vs Russia with China thrown in as the new power that had to be reckoned with. The Ukraine war – the result of Russia desperately trying to contain the spread of NATO and the GAZA Palestinian war- a throwback from the throes of a crumbling British Empire trying to shed off its colonial baggage as fast as it could. The whole world riveted itself to the unfolding bloodletting in these two theaters of modern warfare, holding its breath and praying that things should not spill over into a nuclear encounter between East and West. It was the Old World , hoping against mounting odds that MAD does occur and that none would be dumb enough to resort to the nuclear trigger.
Into this tension filled global atmosphere stepped in Donald Trump, a new Kid in the Block, with different ideas and a business man’s take on how to conduct diplomacy. No wonder the term ‘Transactional President’ is a new word in the International political lexicon. As Trumpian America unfolds its plan of action, the Old World sat back in astonished disbelief, at what is being unrolled before its very eyes. Let’s try and see what these are and what they have in store , especially for those of us in the backwaters of India, in a region called the North East.
As we speak of the evaporating Old World Order , we cannot but reflect back on what the poet, Lord Alfred Tennyson, had to say on the subject , “The old order changeth yielding place to new and God fulfills himself in may ways lest one good custom should corrupt the world.” So what has the New World Order brought in? It has brought in a new realignment in Global politics. As Trump unreels with astonishing speed his new vision of what things will be , both for the US and for the World; as the new American onslaught of Shock and Awe unfolds itself, we find World leaders scrambling all over themselves trying to make sense of it all. In the US the Democrats are yet to recover from the defeat in the recent Presidential elections and they have yet to make sense of it all, if indeed there is any sense at all ! They have yet to come up with any meaningful counter – measure to defy an aggressive Republican White House. I suspect it would be quite a while before we see them back in action. On the World stage, world leaders are busy trying to read their tarot cards while the more wily ones have managed to make a beeline for the new Mecca – the White House, Washington DC! Within two weeks of the Donald being installed in the White House, three heads of state – Japanese, Israeli and Indian have met him; negotiated with him and more or less signed whatever deals had to be made with the US. The fourth, the King of Jordan, also met Trump but he apparently returned home a more perplexed man, and none the wiser than before the meeting.
Navigating the new political undercurrents of the World ever since the 47th US President was installed, has become more complex and convoluted. Anticipating what next with a ‘transactional Trump’ is more difficult than with the straight conventional approach of Joe Biden. Nothing can be taken for granted and the ones most in shock and bewildered are the members of NATO and the European Union. They took things for granted; that the American security umbrella would always be there to protect them; that America would still be fixated with safekeeping Europe from a Russian Bear; that NATO would continue to be an American baby. Nothing can be further from the truth. The new US administration sees the Atlantic Ocean more as a stretch of water that separates the American mainland from Europe than one that bonds them together. American interests are no longer determined by the security of Europe. Trump and his administration have sets their sights on new areas for American focus and attention. Peace in the Middle East through a partnership with Israel and American type of colonisation of the region is rapidly surfacing. Enforcing American partnership with countries worried over the rise of China and concerned about sea lanes in the Indo Pacific region may well be the future priority for the Americans. No wonder the early invitation to King Abdulla of Jordan and the precedence given to the PMs of Israel, Japan and India as well as. It left out Europe in the cold and left European leaders in a panic, flapping about like headless chickens!
Now lets see what the deal with India is. In a joint press interview Trump came out with a startling comment when he casually remarked that as far as the US was concerned, it left India to deal with Bangladesh, a country that of late has been giving out plenty of anti India vibes. It showed, as no other way could, that in the new partnership between the US and India, the senior partner, the US, had confidence in its junior partner , India, for the latter to deal with its own backyard in such a manner that poses no threat to the interest of the senior partner. It remains to be seen how India intends to fill in the blank cheque handed over to it vis a vis Bangladesh but this is bound to resound positively in all future Joint ventures into the Indo –Pacific region, the new hub of the Trump administration. In the New World Order, the US no longer sees Russia as a threat. The adversary now is China and Trump is out to cut it to size. Trade is one of the weapons of choice and as 60% of Chinese trade and 80% of its oil imports pass through the Malacca straits, control over this choke point assumes critical significance in any future face-off with China. In this new geo-political chess game the Americans have not overlooked the importance of the Andaman and Nicobar islands; their choke point potential; to whom they belong and the existence of a major Indian military base there. Seen in this light there is no doubt in my mind that QUAD will be revitalized and strengthened and that port Blair will become a major naval base in the Indian Ocean.
Aside from the above the two countries also came out with the “U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) declaration for the 21st Century” – to drive transformative change across key pillars of cooperation. Under this initiative, the two sides committed to a results-driven agenda with initial outcomes this year to demonstrate the level of trust for a mutually beneficial partnership. In defence the deal culminated with the offer of the Javelin anti tank missile; the Stryker combat vehicle and F35 fighter aircraft to India. Also included in the deal was the resolve of the two countries to expand trade and investment and high level collaboration in agriculture, higher education and technology. In foreign trade there was the ambitious plan for India to reach the 400 billion dollar mark in the next four years. For the North East, what we should be interested in are the issues of collaboration on agriculture, education and technology. We should expect respectable amounts of US investments on these three areas and the NE should be prepared to receive a significant and meaningful percentage of the same. We should prepare now.
The region’s strength is its English speaking population and IT related services. Educational tie-ups in these areas are a distinct possibility. We urgently need new technology on improving our upland agricultural system. The US must be having some technology on upland agriculture and we need this technology for our hilly agriculturists. Its high time we address ourselves to the growing global demand for fresh potable drinking water. Within the next 20 years the world’s population will double and 55% of this population will need to import fresh drinking water for itself. Where will this water come from? In our region fresh water in the form of monsoon rains comes down in bucketfuls . So far 99% of this rain water goes back to waste. We need a vision on how to harvest this manna from heaven and turn it into an export item and an economic asset for ourselves in the next 20 years.
Israel is the recognized leader in water harvesting and in the maximum usage of water resources. Later this year a large Indian delegation of businessmen, NGOs and community leaders will be heading to Israel for talks on collaboration. Meghalaya should ensure that the delegation should include not just politicians who usually take such visits as holiday jaunts, but someone who can bring back some positive joint ventures or projects from Israel to be included in the delegation. Perhaps in the New World Order collaboration with America and Israel in this field may yield results way beyond our present dreams while slaking a thirsty world at the same time.