By Our Reporter
SHILLONG, March 23: The state long known for its high fertility rates, is like other parts of the world undergoing a slow yet noticeable demographic transformation.
While it remains one of the few states in India where the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is still above the replacement level of 2.1, changing socio-economic conditions are gradually shaping reproductive patterns.
A recent study published in The Lancet predicts that India’s TFR will decline to 1.29 by 2050, well below the replacement threshold. This broader national trend suggests that Meghalaya, too, is on a path toward smaller family sizes, albeit at a slower pace.
Historically, Meghalaya has maintained a birth rate higher than the national average.
Data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) illustrate this trend.
In 1998-99 (NFHS-2), the state recorded a TFR of 4.7. By 2005-06 (NFHS-3), it had dropped to 3.8. The most recent survey (NFHS-5) conducted between 2019 and 2021 reported a further decline to 2.9. While this downward trajectory is evident, Meghalaya still lags behind most Indian states, where 31 out of 36 states and Union Territories have already reached or fallen below the replacement fertility level.
Similarly, a 2024 study published in The Indian Journal of Psychology stated that among childless women, only 0.9 per cent expressed a desire to stop having children, and even among those who preferred smaller families, active contraceptive use remained limited. The desire to limit family size, however, increases with the number of children.
Among women with two children, 32.3 per cent expressed that they did not want any more, but only 24.7 per cent reported using contraceptives. This trend continues as family size increases.
Among women with four children, 39 per cent wanted to stop, and 34.1 per cent used contraceptives. For women with five or more children, 42.7 per cent wished to halt childbearing, and 38.8 per cent were using contraception to do so.
Despite growing awareness, modern contraceptive use in Meghalaya remains relatively low.
In the most recent NFHS report, only 22 per cent of married women in the state reported using any form of contraception. Contraceptive pills were the most common method, used by around 12 per cent of women.
Urbanisation is also playing a significant role in reshaping Meghalaya’s fertility trends.
As cities like Shillong and Tura expand, younger generations are showing a growing preference for smaller families.
Economic challenges, rising costs of living, and aspirations for better career opportunities are influencing family planning decisions. Many young couples now opt for fewer children to ensure better educational and economic prospects for their families.
Data suggest that women in urban areas are more inclined to limit family size compared to their rural counterparts. For instance, among rural women with five or more children, 25.8 per cent expressed a desire to stop having children. In urban areas, however, the percentage was significantly higher.
Similarly, women with higher education levels tend to have fewer children. Among women with no formal education and five or more children, 36 per cent reported wanting to stop childbearing. By contrast, among highly educated women with the same number of children, the figure dropped to 21.7 per cent, as per the same study.
Exposure to mass media also appears to shape fertility preferences. Women who regularly consume media are more likely to consider limiting family size than those who do not.
Among media-exposed women with five or more children, 19.1 per cent wanted no more children, while among those with no media exposure, the figure stood at 31.3 per cent. Economic status further influences reproductive choices.
Among women classified as poor with five or more children, 27.5 per cent wished to stop childbearing, whereas, among wealthier women in the same category, only 7.6 per cent expressed the same preference.
Religious and caste-based differences also impact fertility choices.
Among Hindu women with no children, 1.9 per cent did not want any, while among those with two children, this percentage jumped to 47.2 per cent. Among Scheduled Tribe women with three children, 24.7 per cent wished to stop childbearing, whereas, among Scheduled Caste women with the same number of children, the figure was slightly lower at 25 per cent.
The projected decline in India’s fertility rate suggests that Meghalaya, too, will see a further drop in birth rates in the coming years. However, experts stress that proactive policy measures are necessary to effectively manage this demographic shift.